***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.02.2020.-16.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 1.9 1.6 7.9 70.1 44.8 36.6 0.4 4.4 8.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 1.0 2.6 7.1 70.7 48.1 37.4 1.4 2.8 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 1.8 2.1 7.5 68.5 46.5 36.5 1.2 4.4 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 5.1 6.9 8.3 71.2 44.5 37.0 5.1 10.8 16.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 2.6 4.0 8.8 74.3 44.1 37.6 2.9 5.2 16.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 70 30 0 100 2.9 5.5 8.0 72.2 42.5 36.6 3.1 6.8 7.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 1.6 3.7 7.3 74.5 51.0 39.2 0.8 3.5 7.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 8.7 13.5 9.1 72.4 43.7 37.9 8.2 15.3 24.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 4.1 4.2 9.3 74.9 43.2 37.8 2.5 8.5 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 4.9 6.2 9.7 74.8 43.9 38.2 4.8 7.8 14.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 3.1 4.7 8.3 72.9 42.4 37.6 2.2 6.4 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 2.7 4.0 7.8 70.5 41.8 36.9 2.7 6.8 14.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 3.4 4.5 8.3 70.6 41.1 36.4 3.6 6.2 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 5.3 11.0 10.5 78.5 48.2 39.9 5.6 11.3 18.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 2.4 5.6 6.7 60.8 46.8 34.3 1.7 6.4 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 2.2 2.9 8.2 73.0 42.2 37.0 1.7 5.1 10.6 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 2.2 6.1 7.5 78.6 52.5 40.5 2.4 5.1 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 4.8 7.5 10.7 77.4 45.4 39.4 5.1 9.1 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 69 31 0 100 1.2 3.3 7.1 69.5 47.1 36.7 1.6 3.6 14.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 4.7 7.5 12.8 75.3 46.8 39.1 4.3 8.0 10.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 3.1 2.8 8.6 73.0 43.8 37.7 1.2 7.0 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 70 30 0 100 2.0 6.6 7.4 73.1 47.5 38.2 4.2 6.8 12.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 2.2 3.6 7.8 72.4 48.2 37.5 1.8 5.3 12.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 2.8 5.8 9.7 76.1 47.0 38.8 4.1 7.0 16.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 2.3 3.3 9.4 76.9 45.0 38.2 1.3 5.2 20.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 1.8 3.2 7.5 65.9 40.6 35.9 2.1 4.1 9.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 1.7 2.4 8.7 73.8 45.5 37.5 0.9 4.5 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 1.9 4.0 7.3 65.8 44.5 35.1 1.8 5.9 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 10.6 14.3 11.6 78.1 45.0 39.9 9.7 16.2 22.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 1.3 2.9 7.1 68.3 46.1 36.2 1.6 3.6 7.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------