***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.02.2020.-09.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 1.7 4.6 8.1 75.5 51.4 43.2 0.5 4.0 7.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 1.3 3.7 7.6 80.6 53.8 44.2 1.0 3.3 4.6 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 2.2 6.0 8.2 77.6 53.3 44.9 1.0 4.8 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 3.1 8.7 9.3 77.6 54.7 44.6 4.7 6.4 10.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 4.3 8.0 9.5 78.2 50.1 44.0 4.0 7.9 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 3.9 7.9 10.4 90.5 54.6 48.1 3.7 7.6 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 1.7 4.4 7.6 82.4 54.9 45.0 1.4 3.8 5.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 5.4 9.9 11.3 89.6 53.5 47.6 5.2 9.4 18.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 2.7 5.3 9.6 80.0 49.7 44.7 1.5 5.3 9.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 7.4 8.3 11.3 92.0 54.8 48.5 2.7 5.2 11.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 3.2 7.1 10.4 89.6 54.4 48.5 2.7 6.4 10.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 2.0 5.3 10.3 87.8 52.9 47.3 2.3 4.7 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 3.8 8.4 11.4 93.5 53.8 49.7 3.8 8.1 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 9.2 8.8 11.0 85.4 53.9 46.0 3.3 7.4 10.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 1.7 4.9 7.8 74.3 55.5 44.1 0.5 3.8 8.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 2.7 5.7 10.3 88.0 53.1 47.8 3.2 4.9 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 1.8 4.0 7.5 81.6 51.5 42.0 2.2 4.0 5.9 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 2.2 5.8 12.0 92.0 54.8 47.7 2.0 4.6 7.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 2.0 5.9 7.6 78.6 53.2 43.8 0.8 5.1 11.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 6.4 5.5 15.0 91.2 51.7 47.3 2.4 5.2 8.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 2.0 4.5 9.2 79.9 52.3 45.5 2.8 4.1 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 1.8 4.4 8.0 84.8 52.7 42.9 1.5 4.0 6.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 1.8 4.0 7.9 76.0 51.7 43.5 0.4 3.9 8.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 2.9 5.6 10.4 84.4 54.7 45.7 2.9 4.9 9.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 2.0 5.2 10.1 80.6 52.1 43.7 3.1 4.9 9.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 1.8 3.3 10.2 81.5 47.2 44.9 2.7 4.3 7.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 2.8 6.9 9.4 80.5 53.9 44.0 1.9 6.8 9.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 1.6 4.6 8.5 76.5 54.3 44.1 1.0 3.5 7.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 5.0 11.7 13.0 92.5 54.6 47.4 3.7 9.6 14.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 1.8 4.7 7.5 78.3 53.5 43.7 0.8 4.4 7.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------