***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.01.2020.-02.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 88 12 100 5.6 12.7 15.9 134.9 72.1 66.0 0.8 4.5 10.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 45 55 100 7.7 9.7 14.8 148.5 74.1 70.2 1.3 4.5 6.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 89 11 100 7.0 10.2 12.8 108.8 63.2 57.8 1.6 5.5 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 11.9 9.3 10.8 72.9 45.2 43.6 5.3 9.5 15.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 86 14 100 11.5 10.4 13.0 93.4 52.8 51.7 5.5 9.9 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 3.6 6.2 8.1 64.5 40.8 38.8 3.7 8.6 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 8.7 11.3 15.6 157.2 76.2 71.5 1.3 4.3 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 7.5 9.7 8.9 56.7 37.8 36.3 8.6 12.2 22.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 87 13 100 8.5 9.0 12.3 93.1 54.2 51.5 2.2 7.3 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 10.5 8.1 10.8 73.7 45.5 43.5 5.0 8.7 15.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 10.0 7.0 9.9 71.1 43.3 42.4 3.7 8.3 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 7.2 2.7 8.5 59.5 38.3 37.5 1.6 4.6 8.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 12.4 6.7 10.7 73.9 43.9 42.4 3.8 9.5 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 7.8 7.0 13.2 91.0 54.4 52.0 3.0 5.8 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 8.0 3.0 6.8 51.3 42.0 38.8 0.9 5.7 8.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 8.9 6.1 9.9 72.6 43.4 42.4 3.9 6.8 13.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 6.8 9.0 14.8 158.8 77.4 72.7 0.9 3.2 5.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 9.1 6.0 11.2 74.4 43.5 43.6 4.5 7.3 10.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 87 13 100 6.3 10.1 14.3 136.7 71.3 66.9 1.1 5.6 9.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 3.5 3.7 9.5 50.8 33.8 33.2 3.7 7.0 12.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 88 12 100 7.9 9.4 13.2 102.5 59.3 54.3 2.6 6.4 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 7.0 9.2 15.5 159.7 79.5 73.5 0.5 4.0 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 88 12 100 4.3 7.6 13.2 114.5 64.9 60.4 0.9 3.2 7.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 10.4 9.8 11.8 86.4 52.3 49.5 4.4 8.8 15.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 88 12 100 10.5 16.0 17.8 127.5 67.3 62.5 2.3 9.1 15.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 4.8 4.8 8.3 57.3 36.6 36.4 4.3 9.3 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 48 52 100 10.3 11.9 18.0 145.8 73.6 68.3 2.0 5.3 10.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 8.8 2.6 8.0 60.0 42.5 39.8 1.4 7.1 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 8.7 9.0 10.8 66.7 39.9 40.1 7.1 14.9 19.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 87 13 100 4.1 8.7 14.7 141.3 71.6 67.8 1.2 3.3 7.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------