***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.01.2020.-23.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 5 95 100 8.6 11.0 9.5 4.1 91.1 86.9 4.3 5.2 7.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 6 94 100 8.5 10.8 9.6 4.2 92.7 87.3 3.1 5.4 6.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 5 95 100 9.3 11.5 10.0 4.2 90.9 86.4 4.6 5.8 6.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 6 94 100 2.3 4.3 7.1 4.5 92.2 87.6 -1.6 -0.6 1.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 9 91 100 8.5 11.2 8.1 3.9 89.9 84.6 4.2 5.5 7.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 19 81 100 6.9 9.2 6.4 3.4 88.3 81.7 3.6 5.0 6.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 6 94 100 8.0 10.7 9.3 4.0 92.6 86.9 2.8 4.9 5.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 15 85 100 -0.1 0.7 7.1 3.6 86.3 82.8 -2.7 -1.7 -0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 13 87 100 9.1 11.2 9.0 3.9 89.5 84.6 4.8 5.9 7.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 15 85 100 8.1 11.0 7.9 3.7 86.9 82.4 4.7 5.7 7.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 11 89 100 8.2 11.2 8.3 3.9 89.1 84.5 4.6 5.8 7.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 13 87 100 7.8 10.3 7.8 3.7 87.6 84.1 4.5 5.9 6.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 15 85 100 8.1 10.5 7.4 3.6 87.4 83.1 4.6 6.1 7.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 9 91 100 9.6 11.5 9.6 4.2 89.5 85.4 5.2 6.0 8.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 4 96 100 8.4 9.7 8.7 4.9 94.2 89.7 4.6 5.8 6.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 13 87 100 8.8 11.7 7.6 3.8 89.2 84.6 5.1 6.2 7.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 6 94 100 8.2 10.0 9.3 4.0 93.1 87.0 2.6 5.0 5.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 15 85 100 7.6 10.0 7.7 3.8 87.2 83.2 3.8 4.6 6.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 5 95 100 8.9 11.3 9.8 4.2 92.3 87.0 3.4 5.4 6.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 12 88 100 4.3 6.0 5.6 3.6 88.0 83.1 1.0 1.7 3.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 11 89 100 8.9 11.3 9.6 4.0 89.7 85.1 4.5 5.8 7.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 7 93 100 9.1 11.4 9.5 4.0 92.6 86.6 3.3 5.2 6.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 5 95 100 8.7 11.4 10.0 4.2 91.3 86.6 3.5 5.6 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 11 89 100 9.3 11.1 9.3 4.0 88.9 84.7 4.8 6.2 7.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 7 93 100 7.6 10.1 8.1 4.0 90.7 85.9 3.3 4.8 6.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 16 84 100 8.0 9.3 6.6 3.3 87.8 82.5 4.6 6.0 6.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 8 92 100 8.0 10.7 8.8 3.8 90.3 85.8 4.2 5.0 6.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 7 93 100 9.4 11.3 7.9 4.6 92.8 88.0 4.5 6.5 8.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 14 86 100 4.3 6.3 7.0 3.7 87.9 83.3 0.5 2.3 3.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 5 95 100 7.8 10.7 9.6 4.2 92.0 87.2 3.3 5.2 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------