***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.02.2020.-23.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 9.6 10.4 9.5 2.7 71.7 67.9 5.2 6.3 9.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 8.8 9.5 9.6 2.8 70.4 68.7 3.3 5.4 8.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 9.3 10.5 10.0 2.7 71.0 67.4 4.1 6.1 9.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 3.1 2.8 7.2 3.0 71.7 69.0 -1.6 0.5 1.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 9.8 10.4 8.0 2.6 69.3 67.0 4.5 6.1 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 9.4 9.4 6.3 2.2 70.4 64.7 3.2 5.7 8.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 8.3 10.1 9.5 2.7 71.9 68.8 2.6 4.8 8.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 0.5 1.0 6.9 2.3 70.4 65.7 -3.3 -1.7 0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 10.0 10.4 8.6 2.5 69.3 66.1 4.7 6.6 9.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 10.1 10.6 7.7 2.3 69.4 65.3 4.9 6.8 9.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 10.2 11.2 7.9 2.4 69.7 66.2 5.0 6.6 9.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 10.2 10.3 7.6 2.2 70.3 65.6 4.5 6.2 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 11.1 11.1 6.7 2.1 69.9 65.0 5.0 6.6 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 10.2 9.9 9.0 2.5 67.8 66.1 4.1 6.8 9.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 9.0 9.3 8.0 3.1 71.3 69.8 3.8 5.7 8.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 11.0 11.9 7.4 2.4 70.5 66.2 5.4 7.2 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 8.0 8.8 9.4 2.6 70.5 68.7 2.6 4.6 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 9.7 9.0 7.6 2.4 69.0 65.2 3.6 6.4 8.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 8.9 9.6 9.8 2.7 70.4 68.1 3.0 6.1 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 6.1 6.2 5.3 2.3 71.7 66.1 1.5 3.2 5.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 9.7 10.9 9.3 2.6 70.2 66.7 4.8 6.4 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 9.1 9.5 9.5 2.6 70.6 68.1 2.9 5.8 8.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 9.4 9.8 10.0 2.6 70.0 67.1 3.3 5.9 9.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 10.1 10.1 8.9 2.5 69.1 65.9 4.4 7.2 9.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 8.2 9.9 7.9 2.7 72.1 68.2 4.3 4.9 8.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 10.4 11.1 6.6 2.2 70.9 65.7 5.2 6.1 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 9.0 10.7 8.9 2.7 72.6 68.1 4.1 5.6 8.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 9.3 10.2 7.5 3.0 71.3 68.8 4.2 5.5 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 6.5 6.6 6.8 2.3 68.9 65.5 0.4 3.7 5.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 41 59 100 8.5 10.0 9.6 2.8 71.8 68.5 3.1 5.1 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------