***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.02.2020.-16.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 8.8 11.1 9.2 3.2 78.1 72.1 2.2 3.3 9.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 7.9 9.8 9.3 3.2 78.9 72.5 2.3 3.9 7.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 9.0 11.4 9.8 3.2 77.9 71.3 2.7 3.9 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 3.7 5.3 6.9 3.4 77.2 72.2 -2.8 -0.9 1.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 8.7 10.6 7.9 3.0 76.2 70.5 3.2 4.3 8.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 8.6 8.9 6.3 2.6 70.9 66.9 2.7 4.7 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 7.4 9.6 9.1 3.1 79.1 72.7 2.4 3.3 6.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 0.6 0.8 7.0 2.8 75.4 69.5 -3.5 -1.7 -0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 9.4 10.8 8.6 3.0 76.4 70.2 3.3 4.2 8.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 9.1 10.6 7.7 2.9 75.5 69.5 3.2 5.1 8.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 9.5 10.9 7.9 3.0 75.4 70.3 3.6 5.2 9.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 9.3 9.9 7.6 2.8 74.2 69.8 3.3 5.1 8.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 9.7 11.4 6.8 2.7 75.3 68.8 3.5 5.6 9.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 9.0 10.0 9.0 3.2 75.3 70.9 3.4 4.7 8.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 7.3 8.6 7.8 3.6 79.6 73.5 2.5 5.0 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 10.0 11.9 7.3 2.9 76.1 69.8 4.0 5.6 9.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 7.1 9.0 9.1 3.1 78.9 72.4 2.2 3.7 7.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 8.7 10.1 7.8 3.0 76.2 69.8 3.0 4.9 7.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 8.1 10.5 9.5 3.2 78.4 71.9 2.3 3.8 7.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 5.0 6.1 5.5 2.8 77.9 69.3 0.5 2.2 4.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 8.9 11.0 9.2 3.0 77.7 70.5 3.3 4.0 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 8.2 10.0 9.3 3.1 78.2 72.0 2.8 4.3 7.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 8.1 10.1 9.8 3.1 77.9 71.0 3.0 4.1 6.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 9.3 11.0 8.9 3.1 76.8 70.7 3.5 4.1 9.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 8.5 10.4 7.8 3.2 78.5 71.7 2.7 4.0 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 9.2 10.4 6.6 2.7 74.7 69.3 3.4 5.7 8.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 9.1 11.2 8.6 3.1 78.4 71.8 2.8 4.3 9.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 8.1 9.2 7.3 3.4 77.8 71.8 3.4 5.3 8.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 26 74 100 5.6 6.5 7.0 3.0 77.2 69.7 -0.5 2.2 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 7.8 10.1 9.3 3.2 78.9 72.4 2.4 3.5 7.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------