***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.02.2020.-09.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 9.6 11.6 9.1 4.2 81.9 76.9 2.5 5.4 10.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 9.8 12.1 9.2 4.2 82.3 77.7 3.6 5.7 9.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 10.7 12.7 9.5 4.1 80.5 75.2 4.0 7.0 10.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 16 84 100 4.2 5.8 6.9 4.8 84.3 79.6 -0.7 0.6 3.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 9.7 10.9 7.7 4.0 79.6 74.9 3.9 7.0 8.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 8.4 9.6 6.1 3.6 78.6 72.2 3.2 6.0 7.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 9.5 11.7 9.0 4.1 83.6 77.6 2.6 5.4 9.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 1.1 1.8 6.6 3.5 77.5 71.6 -2.9 -1.0 1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 10.5 12.3 8.6 3.9 79.6 73.8 4.9 7.5 9.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 9.9 11.3 7.3 3.5 76.2 71.0 5.1 7.1 9.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 10.1 11.3 8.0 3.8 79.0 73.7 4.2 7.5 9.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 9.8 11.0 7.3 3.7 78.7 73.1 5.3 6.8 8.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 9.8 11.0 7.2 3.6 78.2 72.7 4.2 6.8 9.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 11.2 13.1 8.9 3.9 80.2 73.5 4.8 7.9 10.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 17 83 100 9.8 10.9 8.6 5.2 86.8 81.8 4.4 6.8 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 10.0 11.3 7.3 3.9 79.9 74.2 4.6 7.4 9.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 24 76 100 9.5 11.0 8.9 4.0 83.0 77.5 3.5 5.9 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 8.5 9.8 7.0 3.5 77.3 70.9 4.2 6.0 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 10.3 12.3 9.3 4.3 81.7 77.1 3.9 6.0 10.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 6.0 7.1 5.2 3.5 77.4 71.9 1.7 2.8 5.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 10.4 11.9 9.2 3.9 79.8 74.3 4.2 7.4 9.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 22 78 100 10.5 12.2 9.1 4.0 82.4 76.7 4.0 6.0 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 10.4 12.3 9.4 4.2 81.3 76.1 4.4 6.5 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 10.9 12.6 8.7 3.7 79.0 72.3 4.9 8.1 10.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 9.0 10.7 7.9 4.1 82.2 77.1 3.6 5.2 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 8.8 10.1 6.3 3.6 79.1 73.7 4.2 5.8 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 9.3 11.3 8.5 4.0 81.5 76.5 3.3 5.7 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 19 81 100 10.8 12.7 7.7 4.8 84.8 78.9 5.0 8.0 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 5.8 6.9 6.4 3.5 78.0 71.3 1.8 3.7 5.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 9.7 12.0 9.2 4.2 82.2 77.3 3.2 5.2 9.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------