***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.02.2020.-09.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 1.6 3.3 1.4 3.9 85.2 79.0 -4.6 -0.8 1.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 0.6 2.4 1.5 4.1 85.6 80.2 -5.4 -1.1 0.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 3.1 5.3 1.7 4.2 87.4 80.7 -1.9 0.2 2.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 16 84 100 -2.0 -0.3 -0.5 4.7 86.7 82.7 -7.6 -4.6 -3.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 21 79 100 -0.2 0.5 -0.3 4.1 83.7 79.5 -4.7 -2.3 -1.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 16 84 100 -1.6 -0.1 -2.4 4.2 82.3 79.7 -5.0 -3.7 -2.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 0.8 2.3 1.5 4.0 84.8 79.3 -4.9 -0.8 0.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 -5.8 -4.8 -2.6 3.7 78.6 76.7 -9.5 -7.9 -5.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 20 80 100 0.9 3.0 -0.2 4.2 86.2 81.3 -4.0 -0.8 0.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 25 75 100 0.1 0.9 -1.9 3.9 81.0 78.1 -4.7 -1.7 0.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 21 79 100 -0.3 0.5 -1.0 4.1 83.0 79.6 -4.8 -2.5 -0.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 26 74 100 -1.3 -0.3 -1.7 3.9 79.9 77.2 -5.2 -3.5 -1.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 -0.7 0.4 -1.8 3.9 81.1 78.0 -4.4 -2.7 -1.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 23 77 100 1.2 3.1 -0.1 4.5 88.6 82.6 -3.3 -0.7 0.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 16 84 100 0.0 1.9 0.9 4.9 92.1 85.7 -3.5 -1.8 -0.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 23 77 100 0.6 1.3 -1.4 4.2 83.0 80.1 -4.1 -1.3 -0.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 0.5 1.7 1.7 4.1 88.2 79.8 -5.5 -1.0 0.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 22 78 100 -2.4 -1.4 -2.1 4.0 83.5 79.0 -6.1 -3.8 -2.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 0.8 2.6 1.5 4.1 87.3 81.1 -4.8 -0.9 0.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 -4.8 -4.2 -3.7 3.3 75.6 73.9 -9.9 -7.5 -6.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 22 78 100 0.8 1.9 1.0 4.1 84.7 80.4 -4.5 -1.4 -0.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 0.7 2.0 1.6 4.1 89.0 80.5 -5.3 -1.1 0.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 22 78 100 0.0 2.0 1.2 4.2 89.7 82.5 -4.3 -1.4 -0.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 22 78 100 -0.2 2.2 -0.2 4.3 88.2 81.9 -4.6 -2.3 -0.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 25 75 100 -0.1 1.1 0.7 4.1 84.6 80.1 -4.2 -2.1 -0.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 -1.1 -0.6 -2.2 3.6 77.4 75.3 -4.0 -2.9 -2.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 0.7 2.8 1.1 4.0 83.5 78.6 -5.1 -1.8 -0.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 17 83 100 -0.6 0.9 -0.1 4.8 88.4 83.1 -5.8 -2.8 -1.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 24 76 100 -1.4 0.1 -3.0 3.7 80.2 77.2 -6.5 -4.1 -2.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 25 75 100 1.3 3.1 1.5 4.0 85.3 79.9 -5.1 -0.6 0.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------