***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.01.2020.-02.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 -0.2 3.7 3.0 5.8 98.8 97.4 -5.7 -2.2 -1.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 -0.3 3.6 3.3 6.4 99.7 97.8 -6.4 -2.3 -1.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 1.3 6.0 3.2 6.0 98.8 97.3 -3.3 -1.2 0.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 -4.4 0.4 1.0 6.6 97.6 96.5 -9.0 -6.4 -5.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 -0.3 2.4 0.8 5.1 95.1 93.6 -5.3 -2.7 -1.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 -1.6 1.6 -1.0 5.7 98.0 96.6 -7.3 -4.8 -2.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 -0.1 2.9 3.1 6.2 98.9 96.9 -5.7 -2.3 -1.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 1 99 100 -6.1 -3.8 -1.3 5.2 93.7 91.6 -10.1 -8.7 -6.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 0.3 2.8 0.5 4.9 93.3 92.7 -4.5 -1.9 -0.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 -0.4 2.1 -0.7 5.1 93.7 92.0 -4.9 -2.8 -1.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 -0.4 1.3 0.0 4.9 91.9 91.1 -5.2 -3.2 -1.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 1 99 100 -1.2 1.2 -0.3 5.2 94.2 91.9 -6.3 -3.9 -2.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 2 98 100 -0.4 1.2 -0.1 5.4 95.3 93.8 -5.8 -3.5 -1.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 0.5 3.2 1.4 6.5 98.3 96.3 -4.2 -1.5 -0.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 0.3 3.3 2.4 6.4 98.6 97.3 -4.2 -2.4 -0.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 1 99 100 0.5 3.2 0.2 5.6 96.2 94.9 -5.3 -2.8 -1.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 -0.1 2.3 3.2 6.4 98.9 96.8 -5.1 -2.6 -1.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 1 99 100 -2.0 0.3 -0.4 6.0 96.9 95.2 -6.4 -3.8 -3.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 -0.1 3.3 3.1 6.2 99.8 97.8 -5.7 -2.4 -0.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 1 99 100 -5.5 -1.8 -1.4 5.8 96.8 94.3 -10.9 -8.2 -6.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 -0.1 2.4 2.2 5.4 96.9 95.0 -4.7 -2.3 -0.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 -0.2 1.9 3.0 6.2 99.2 96.7 -5.8 -2.6 -1.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 -0.8 3.2 2.4 5.8 99.2 97.0 -5.2 -2.2 -1.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 -0.4 1.6 1.3 6.1 98.0 96.1 -5.0 -2.4 -1.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 0.0 2.8 2.5 5.7 98.6 97.5 -4.8 -2.2 -1.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 1 99 100 -1.5 0.5 -0.8 4.7 92.5 91.0 -5.2 -3.7 -2.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 0.4 5.5 2.8 5.8 98.6 97.3 -5.7 -3.2 -0.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 -0.7 1.5 1.8 7.0 98.0 97.1 -6.3 -4.1 -1.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 -3.1 1.3 -1.5 5.7 95.4 93.8 -8.1 -5.5 -3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 -0.3 4.4 3.2 6.2 99.3 97.6 -5.7 -1.9 -0.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------