***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.01.2014.-23.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 9999.0 0.0 49.2 121.8 67.5 62.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 38.9 33.3 46.5 123.4 69.5 63.7 18.0 23.2 32.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 51.1 49.7 50.1 124.1 73.3 64.1 27.3 35.0 45.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 57.9 66.4 58.9 132.0 79.2 67.3 35.2 44.6 50.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 59.7 67.6 54.9 122.3 75.6 63.7 35.5 45.3 52.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 46.9 50.3 55.7 120.1 72.5 62.3 29.8 34.2 45.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 35.6 30.4 45.3 121.1 67.8 62.8 20.2 22.3 29.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 80.6 82.9 57.0 116.0 70.1 60.9 56.2 68.9 81.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 37.9 46.5 52.5 116.1 71.1 60.2 22.4 32.4 41.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 44.9 56.4 55.1 112.5 68.1 58.9 31.6 38.9 53.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 50.1 51.9 50.4 117.5 71.6 61.4 27.5 35.5 45.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 54.4 58.1 51.7 120.2 73.2 62.9 27.6 36.3 48.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 56.1 63.7 54.2 120.7 75.4 63.3 30.0 40.3 59.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 57.9 61.0 58.2 119.8 70.9 63.1 32.8 45.9 54.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 47.7 74.8 67.8 158.2 86.3 75.7 18.5 24.6 31.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 50.4 53.6 52.0 121.3 74.6 63.6 25.9 31.6 51.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 37.5 36.8 44.9 124.9 71.6 64.3 19.6 26.1 34.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 53.7 55.7 61.3 113.0 67.6 60.2 29.1 38.3 54.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 38.9 40.5 48.0 124.4 71.6 64.3 24.7 29.9 37.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 48.3 53.2 75.8 116.0 67.7 60.7 30.4 42.7 52.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 49.2 51.0 51.1 120.8 74.6 62.2 25.2 34.6 43.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 38.0 40.2 47.8 125.4 73.4 65.4 20.8 27.4 34.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 39.7 41.0 51.0 124.8 73.6 65.1 21.7 29.8 35.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 59.6 62.7 56.9 119.0 72.6 62.8 32.6 48.8 57.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 46.2 46.7 56.8 121.8 70.5 63.4 32.7 36.7 45.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 47.4 56.8 60.0 133.4 79.7 69.0 29.6 33.4 43.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 35.3 42.4 52.0 117.2 65.7 60.9 21.5 29.0 42.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 51.7 65.3 60.2 140.8 81.3 70.2 23.5 26.6 35.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 73.4 80.0 67.1 114.3 67.5 60.6 54.4 66.9 76.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 38.4 41.3 47.3 122.7 69.0 63.3 17.2 23.5 31.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------