***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.02.2014.-23.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 0.0 7.6 87.8 58.0 47.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 1.7 4.0 7.4 86.2 59.8 47.9 1.5 3.6 6.2 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 3.4 7.8 7.8 89.1 58.3 47.9 2.1 5.9 9.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 3.8 6.8 8.1 84.3 54.6 46.0 4.2 5.8 10.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 4.2 7.8 8.1 86.5 57.1 46.6 3.7 6.8 10.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 7.4 7.4 8.8 86.6 54.6 46.8 2.5 5.6 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 1.9 5.0 7.3 86.2 60.4 48.0 1.4 3.8 6.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 14.0 13.1 9.3 86.6 58.7 46.7 6.5 10.2 20.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 2.3 6.3 8.5 90.0 55.9 47.6 2.4 4.6 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 3.1 9.1 9.1 87.1 57.3 46.8 3.8 5.9 11.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 7.8 9.4 7.6 83.3 60.4 46.3 2.6 4.9 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 8.6 8.0 7.7 83.4 57.4 46.1 3.0 5.9 11.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 10.9 10.2 7.9 81.4 53.6 45.6 4.7 9.1 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 3.4 6.6 9.7 89.7 53.8 48.6 4.8 6.3 11.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 5.2 4.0 7.7 82.2 56.6 46.0 1.1 3.3 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 7.8 7.2 7.4 79.5 56.5 45.3 3.2 5.8 8.9 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 1.8 6.8 7.8 93.5 63.3 48.7 1.2 4.1 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 4.0 8.5 10.5 88.7 56.2 46.9 3.4 7.7 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 2.1 6.6 7.5 87.1 59.1 48.0 1.5 4.3 8.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 11.3 12.8 12.7 87.7 56.8 47.3 5.0 8.7 14.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 2.2 6.1 8.1 92.9 57.4 48.1 2.0 4.0 10.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 2.0 6.7 8.3 96.2 62.2 49.7 1.4 4.4 6.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 2.5 6.1 7.9 89.0 57.4 48.4 2.6 5.1 8.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 3.9 8.7 9.4 90.2 54.6 47.9 5.0 6.2 12.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 2.0 7.7 8.6 88.8 55.6 46.9 2.7 4.2 9.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 4.7 10.0 8.4 86.1 56.1 46.3 4.7 9.4 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 2.7 5.9 8.3 87.1 56.2 46.9 3.1 5.1 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 6.2 4.5 7.6 80.6 56.0 45.4 1.8 3.4 7.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 7.6 17.5 11.5 89.4 55.8 47.5 7.7 15.0 20.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 2.5 5.8 7.4 84.8 58.7 47.4 1.4 5.2 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------