***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.02.2014.-16.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 9999.0 0.0 12.4 116.3 61.0 53.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 1.3 9.6 11.8 113.6 62.5 54.5 1.4 2.8 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 2.0 17.2 12.7 120.4 68.8 53.5 1.2 4.4 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 5.7 17.3 14.8 124.3 68.7 54.4 5.1 10.8 16.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 2.8 16.7 13.9 117.6 66.1 53.4 2.9 5.2 16.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 8.4 7.7 14.5 115.9 61.7 52.7 3.1 6.8 7.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 1.7 4.6 11.4 110.0 60.3 53.5 0.8 3.5 7.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 19.1 22.2 14.4 109.8 61.9 52.3 8.2 15.3 24.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 4.2 10.3 13.9 116.6 67.6 53.2 2.5 8.5 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 5.4 13.1 14.6 111.8 64.0 52.6 4.8 7.8 14.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 3.6 11.2 13.2 116.7 64.2 53.0 2.2 6.4 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 3.5 13.6 12.9 115.8 64.1 52.5 2.7 6.8 14.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 3.6 10.8 13.9 119.3 63.0 53.5 3.6 6.2 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 5.8 19.0 15.9 121.4 68.4 54.1 5.6 11.3 18.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 14.0 13.1 15.5 136.6 72.0 55.9 1.7 6.4 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 2.5 10.2 13.5 120.9 64.3 53.3 1.7 5.1 10.6 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 2.6 8.6 11.3 112.9 61.0 54.7 2.4 5.1 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 5.1 12.3 16.4 113.8 65.6 52.7 5.1 9.1 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 1.6 13.7 12.3 117.5 65.6 54.7 1.6 3.6 14.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 9.7 9.9 19.0 109.0 62.3 52.2 4.3 8.0 10.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 3.4 11.8 13.0 117.1 66.6 53.1 1.2 7.0 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 2.8 11.6 11.9 110.1 63.2 53.6 4.2 6.8 12.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 2.6 14.7 13.1 121.7 69.8 54.3 1.8 5.3 12.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 3.3 16.8 15.2 121.2 68.6 53.6 4.1 7.0 16.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 2.4 10.7 14.2 115.7 62.1 53.4 1.3 5.2 20.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 2.3 9.1 14.0 122.5 65.7 54.0 2.1 4.1 9.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 1.8 7.2 13.3 112.9 60.2 53.2 0.9 4.5 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 14.9 16.1 14.9 130.8 69.5 55.0 1.8 5.9 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 11.3 22.5 17.7 113.4 65.6 53.1 9.7 16.2 22.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 1.5 7.5 11.9 114.3 65.4 53.9 1.6 3.6 7.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------