***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.02.2014.-09.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 0.0 11.0 107.5 63.2 54.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 4.8 4.6 10.4 116.8 66.1 57.0 1.0 3.3 4.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 6.5 9.0 11.5 114.1 64.1 56.6 1.0 4.8 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 7.8 10.1 12.8 113.5 64.9 59.0 4.7 6.4 10.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 9.8 13.4 12.2 107.4 61.8 56.3 4.0 7.9 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 8.6 9.2 12.3 108.2 63.5 56.1 3.7 7.6 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 5.0 4.8 10.1 113.4 63.3 56.3 1.4 3.8 5.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 12.1 17.8 12.7 104.1 64.1 55.1 5.2 9.4 18.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 6.9 6.7 12.4 105.7 60.2 55.4 1.5 5.3 9.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 7.1 10.2 12.8 102.9 61.5 54.5 2.7 5.2 11.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 7.4 10.0 11.4 107.5 63.8 56.4 2.7 6.4 10.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 5.8 7.0 11.5 109.1 64.7 56.8 2.3 4.7 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 9.0 9.8 11.8 108.6 62.0 56.3 3.8 8.1 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 9.1 9.8 13.1 113.5 64.8 56.4 3.3 7.4 10.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 5.2 8.4 14.1 125.0 68.1 63.7 0.5 3.8 8.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 6.2 10.0 11.5 110.2 63.4 57.6 3.2 4.9 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 6.0 8.8 9.7 119.8 69.0 58.4 2.2 4.0 5.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 7.3 7.4 14.0 101.2 62.0 53.5 2.0 4.6 7.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 2.5 11.7 10.8 118.8 66.8 57.4 0.8 5.1 11.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 6.1 6.8 15.7 96.6 61.4 52.7 2.4 5.2 8.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 5.9 7.4 11.9 109.4 61.0 56.1 2.8 4.1 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 5.9 7.2 10.4 122.8 69.7 59.2 1.5 4.0 6.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 1.9 8.9 11.5 118.5 66.2 57.5 0.4 3.9 8.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 7.3 8.3 13.0 108.5 62.8 55.0 2.9 4.9 9.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 6.6 8.4 12.4 102.1 58.9 53.5 3.1 4.9 9.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 5.9 7.2 11.9 111.8 65.7 57.0 2.7 4.3 7.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 8.7 8.4 11.6 102.2 59.6 53.0 1.9 6.8 9.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 5.1 8.0 13.2 122.5 67.7 62.5 1.0 3.5 7.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 11.4 13.6 14.6 99.1 62.0 53.1 3.7 9.6 14.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 5.6 7.3 10.7 114.5 64.1 56.2 0.8 4.4 7.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------