***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.01.2014.-02.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 9999.0 0.0 18.1 168.5 86.4 72.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 8.2 10.4 16.9 172.5 79.6 73.4 1.3 4.5 6.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 14.9 21.0 18.2 164.4 83.4 72.1 1.6 5.5 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 11 89 100 19.7 25.5 23.3 195.9 87.6 83.0 5.3 9.5 15.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 18.6 22.5 20.6 167.9 84.2 75.8 5.5 9.9 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 15.0 18.5 20.1 163.1 80.5 76.2 3.7 8.6 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 9.1 11.5 16.4 171.5 81.8 72.9 1.3 4.3 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 24.3 29.7 20.7 156.6 78.5 70.6 8.6 12.2 22.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 45 55 100 12.5 16.7 17.7 145.6 77.9 67.5 2.2 7.3 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 43 57 100 14.1 17.1 18.6 143.1 74.4 67.1 5.0 8.7 15.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 14.2 14.3 18.1 153.9 75.9 70.6 3.7 8.3 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 13.3 17.5 19.6 162.1 79.2 72.6 1.6 4.6 8.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 18.7 22.6 20.6 162.3 82.5 75.2 3.8 9.5 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 15.2 19.5 19.5 148.5 76.6 70.3 3.0 5.8 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 3 97 100 15.7 34.5 30.5 281.9 95.2 91.2 0.9 5.7 8.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 14.5 18.3 19.6 163.9 81.1 75.4 3.9 6.8 13.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 6.9 9.6 16.1 169.4 82.3 73.2 0.9 3.2 5.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 12.7 13.4 20.4 144.1 74.7 67.0 4.5 7.3 10.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 8.9 10.9 17.4 167.5 79.0 72.8 1.1 5.6 9.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 12.9 19.1 28.4 165.7 84.4 71.5 3.7 7.0 12.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 13.9 20.3 18.0 156.5 82.9 70.2 2.6 6.4 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 7.1 9.9 17.2 168.5 81.3 74.6 0.5 4.0 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 9.7 13.6 18.5 160.5 79.4 72.3 0.9 3.2 7.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 15.1 18.3 19.3 149.6 77.0 69.4 4.4 8.8 15.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 20 80 100 18.4 22.6 21.6 172.2 87.9 76.8 2.3 9.1 15.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 16 84 100 15.4 29.6 25.7 195.8 92.9 81.5 4.3 9.3 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 11.8 18.6 18.7 160.9 85.3 71.2 2.0 5.3 10.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 9 91 100 14.2 23.9 24.4 221.5 88.8 85.0 1.4 7.1 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 22.6 27.2 23.1 151.2 78.0 68.6 7.1 14.9 19.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 7.7 11.5 17.3 171.6 81.7 72.8 1.2 3.3 7.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------