***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.01.2014.-23.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 0.0 4.7 0.0 51.6 52.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 6.1 5.4 4.4 -0.2 51.2 51.0 3.1 5.4 6.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 6.6 5.7 4.6 -0.3 49.3 49.8 4.6 5.8 6.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 0.2 -1.4 1.5 -1.2 38.1 41.8 -1.6 -0.6 1.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 6.2 5.2 2.8 -0.6 45.8 47.2 4.2 5.5 7.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 5.6 6.1 3.0 0.7 62.2 60.0 3.6 5.0 6.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 5.6 5.3 4.6 0.1 54.6 54.3 2.8 4.9 5.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -1.3 -1.5 3.3 0.5 57.6 57.9 -2.7 -1.7 -0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 6.7 5.9 3.8 -0.3 49.0 49.2 4.8 5.9 7.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 6.3 5.8 3.6 0.2 53.1 54.0 4.7 5.7 7.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 6.4 5.9 3.2 -0.1 50.9 51.2 4.6 5.8 7.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 6.4 6.3 3.7 0.5 57.5 58.0 4.5 5.9 6.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 6.5 6.9 3.9 1.0 63.1 62.7 4.6 6.1 7.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 6.9 5.7 4.4 -0.1 47.8 50.6 5.2 6.0 8.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 3.5 4.9 1.6 -1.5 34.3 38.7 4.6 5.8 6.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 6.9 6.5 3.1 0.1 53.6 53.8 5.1 6.2 7.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 5.7 4.9 4.2 -0.2 49.6 50.4 2.6 5.0 5.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 5.3 5.6 3.7 0.6 58.5 57.5 3.8 4.6 6.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 6.2 5.4 4.5 -0.3 49.2 49.6 3.4 5.4 6.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 2.2 3.7 2.4 1.1 65.7 63.5 1.0 1.7 3.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 6.6 5.7 4.1 -0.4 47.8 48.5 4.5 5.8 7.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 6.1 4.5 4.1 -0.5 44.6 47.4 3.3 5.2 6.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 6.3 5.6 4.6 -0.4 48.9 49.0 3.5 5.6 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 7.0 6.6 4.4 0.1 52.9 52.9 4.8 6.2 7.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 5.5 4.6 3.0 -0.3 48.1 49.9 3.3 4.8 6.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 42 58 100 7.4 6.7 3.9 1.3 69.0 66.7 4.6 6.0 6.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 5.7 5.6 4.2 0.2 54.6 54.6 4.2 5.0 6.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 4.2 5.2 1.7 -1.3 37.0 40.7 4.5 6.5 8.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 2.7 3.7 3.3 0.9 63.6 61.6 0.5 2.3 3.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 5.8 5.4 4.6 -0.1 52.0 51.8 3.3 5.2 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------