***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.02.2014.-23.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 0.0 7.4 1.0 60.1 57.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 6.6 6.1 7.3 1.0 59.3 58.1 3.3 5.4 8.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 7.3 7.9 7.7 1.1 59.7 57.7 4.1 6.1 9.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 1.4 1.6 5.3 0.9 61.7 57.0 -1.6 0.5 1.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 7.5 8.1 6.1 1.1 62.7 58.0 4.5 6.1 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 6.8 8.3 5.2 1.5 65.1 60.8 3.2 5.7 8.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 6.0 5.6 7.2 1.0 59.9 58.4 2.6 4.8 8.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 -0.9 0.7 5.6 1.5 66.1 60.4 -3.3 -1.7 0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 7.9 8.7 7.0 1.3 62.8 58.4 4.7 6.6 9.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 8.0 8.8 6.3 1.4 64.1 59.4 4.9 6.8 9.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 8.0 8.7 6.1 1.3 65.3 58.9 5.0 6.6 9.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 7.6 9.5 6.2 1.4 65.9 60.5 4.5 6.2 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 7.8 10.2 5.8 1.5 65.0 61.2 5.0 6.6 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 8.0 9.5 7.2 1.2 59.3 57.6 4.1 6.8 9.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 6.9 6.9 5.2 0.7 62.5 56.8 3.8 5.7 8.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 8.5 10.2 5.8 1.3 65.0 59.3 5.4 7.2 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 5.7 6.5 7.1 1.0 59.5 58.4 2.6 4.6 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 7.5 8.2 6.0 1.4 63.0 59.7 3.6 6.4 8.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 7.0 7.4 7.6 1.0 59.2 57.8 3.0 6.1 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 4.1 5.9 4.1 1.5 65.5 60.7 1.5 3.2 5.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 7.6 8.0 7.3 1.1 61.0 57.7 4.8 6.4 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 6.9 6.6 7.3 1.0 59.0 58.0 2.9 5.8 8.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 7.1 7.5 7.8 1.1 58.9 57.5 3.3 5.9 9.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 8.3 8.6 7.2 1.3 60.2 58.5 4.4 7.2 9.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 6.1 7.0 5.9 1.0 60.6 57.8 4.3 4.9 8.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 7.3 10.5 5.6 1.6 66.7 62.2 5.2 6.1 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 6.8 7.1 6.7 1.1 60.3 58.1 4.1 5.6 8.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 6.9 7.5 5.5 0.9 62.9 57.2 4.2 5.5 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 4.6 5.3 5.2 1.5 63.7 60.3 0.4 3.7 5.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 6.3 6.2 7.5 1.0 59.5 58.0 3.1 5.1 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------