***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.02.2014.-16.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 9999.0 0.0 6.3 1.4 64.8 60.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 5.3 7.1 6.1 1.2 60.2 59.8 2.3 3.9 7.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 5.7 7.1 6.5 1.4 60.4 60.0 2.7 3.9 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 0.4 0.1 3.7 0.7 56.7 55.6 -2.8 -0.9 1.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 5.7 6.3 4.8 1.2 59.6 58.3 3.2 4.3 8.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 8.8 8.1 4.4 1.8 65.4 62.9 2.7 4.7 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 7.1 6.5 6.1 1.4 61.8 60.9 2.4 3.3 6.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -1.0 -0.8 4.8 1.8 65.8 62.3 -3.5 -1.7 -0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 5.7 7.2 5.8 1.5 60.2 59.8 3.3 4.2 8.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 6.3 8.2 5.3 1.7 63.3 61.2 3.2 5.1 8.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 6.6 7.6 5.0 1.5 62.8 60.5 3.6 5.2 9.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 6.4 8.9 5.2 1.8 67.6 62.8 3.3 5.1 8.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 9.5 9.9 4.9 1.9 68.2 63.4 3.5 5.6 9.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 5.9 6.6 6.2 1.5 61.1 59.6 3.4 4.7 8.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 5.7 5.8 3.4 0.2 52.3 53.3 2.5 5.0 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 7.1 8.8 4.7 1.5 65.3 60.8 4.0 5.6 9.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 4.8 5.7 5.9 1.2 59.8 59.8 2.2 3.7 7.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 5.8 7.7 5.3 1.9 64.5 62.3 3.0 4.9 7.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 5.3 6.9 6.3 1.2 59.7 59.4 2.3 3.8 7.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 2.8 4.0 3.5 1.9 65.8 63.3 0.5 2.2 4.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 5.6 5.7 6.1 1.3 59.4 59.6 3.3 4.0 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 5.5 4.8 6.0 1.1 56.9 58.3 2.8 4.3 7.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 5.4 6.3 6.5 1.3 60.3 59.4 3.0 4.1 6.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 5.6 7.4 6.2 1.7 61.8 61.0 3.5 4.1 9.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 5.4 6.3 4.6 1.1 62.0 58.6 2.7 4.0 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 8.9 9.7 4.9 2.0 71.1 65.0 3.4 5.7 8.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 8.5 9.0 5.6 1.4 65.1 60.6 2.8 4.3 9.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 6.1 5.9 3.8 0.6 56.0 55.3 3.4 5.3 8.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 3.0 3.8 4.6 2.0 65.2 63.2 -0.5 2.2 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 7.3 7.1 6.3 1.3 60.5 60.1 2.4 3.5 7.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------