***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.02.2014.-09.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 3.1 -0.9 44.1 44.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 6.9 4.9 3.0 -1.0 46.3 44.6 3.6 5.7 9.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 8.4 5.3 3.1 -1.2 44.5 43.1 4.0 7.0 10.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 -1.7 -0.8 0.1 -2.1 31.7 37.3 -0.7 0.6 3.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 7.9 4.3 1.2 -1.6 38.7 40.4 3.9 7.0 8.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 6.9 4.6 1.3 -0.5 42.6 47.7 3.2 6.0 7.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 6.5 5.3 3.1 -0.7 48.1 47.0 2.6 5.4 9.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 -0.4 -1.2 1.7 -0.5 46.2 48.0 -2.9 -1.0 1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 8.6 6.7 2.1 -1.4 41.9 41.8 4.9 7.5 9.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 8.0 6.6 2.0 -0.9 43.0 45.1 5.1 7.1 9.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 8.4 6.4 1.6 -1.1 41.8 43.2 4.2 7.5 9.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 7.7 6.3 2.2 -0.4 47.3 48.2 5.3 6.8 8.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 7.7 6.6 2.1 0.0 48.2 50.1 4.2 6.8 9.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 9.0 7.8 2.8 -1.1 48.6 44.4 4.8 7.9 10.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 3.3 4.0 -0.1 -2.5 28.5 34.9 4.4 6.8 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 4.7 5.8 1.4 -1.0 41.9 44.4 4.6 7.4 9.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 6.9 3.9 2.7 -1.1 44.2 44.7 3.5 5.9 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 6.7 5.8 2.1 -0.5 48.7 48.1 4.2 6.0 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 7.4 4.5 3.0 -1.2 45.7 43.3 3.9 6.0 10.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 3.6 4.0 0.9 0.2 55.0 52.3 1.7 2.8 5.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 8.4 5.7 2.5 -1.4 40.7 41.7 4.2 7.4 9.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 7.4 4.8 2.6 -1.4 42.9 41.6 4.0 6.0 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 7.8 6.0 3.1 -1.3 46.7 42.9 4.4 6.5 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 9.1 7.9 2.8 -0.9 46.8 45.3 4.9 8.1 10.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 6.4 4.3 1.4 -1.3 39.8 42.3 3.6 5.2 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 6.6 6.3 2.5 0.6 56.6 55.0 4.2 5.8 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 6.8 5.3 2.5 -0.8 43.7 45.4 3.3 5.7 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 4.0 4.3 0.1 -2.4 30.1 36.0 5.0 8.0 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 4.2 4.3 1.8 -0.1 52.6 50.8 1.8 3.7 5.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 6.6 5.0 3.1 -1.0 46.7 44.8 3.2 5.2 9.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------