***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.01.2014.-02.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 9999.0 0.0 1.8 -1.5 33.7 36.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 69 31 0 100 0.4 0.7 1.2 -2.0 27.9 31.4 1.0 2.7 5.8 30 Becej 27400G00 75 25 0 100 1.2 1.1 1.2 -2.4 26.1 29.0 1.9 3.2 6.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 84 16 0 100 -4.3 -4.8 -3.1 -4.1 14.0 18.5 -3.5 -1.6 0.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 72 28 0 100 1.6 0.9 -0.8 -2.9 20.9 26.3 2.1 4.4 6.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 4.1 3.3 1.1 0.1 51.3 53.6 1.7 3.2 5.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 0.1 1.2 1.9 -1.1 37.0 39.4 0.8 1.5 5.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 -1.4 -2.1 0.9 -0.6 45.0 46.9 -3.4 -1.9 0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 2.0 1.7 0.5 -2.6 24.8 28.9 2.6 4.5 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 2.1 2.7 0.8 -1.5 36.2 38.9 2.6 3.7 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 2.1 1.1 0.0 -2.2 26.8 32.7 2.3 4.3 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 5.6 4.0 1.2 -0.7 44.8 46.2 2.4 4.4 6.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 4.8 5.6 2.7 0.7 58.0 59.7 2.2 4.1 6.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 2.3 2.2 1.2 -2.2 30.8 33.0 2.5 4.4 7.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 88 12 0 100 1.5 0.9 -2.3 -4.5 12.7 17.0 2.6 3.9 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 2.5 2.8 0.4 -1.4 34.4 39.6 2.6 4.5 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 0.5 0.8 0.9 -2.0 29.5 32.0 1.3 2.3 5.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 3.7 2.8 1.3 -0.6 46.3 46.8 2.4 2.9 5.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 76 24 0 100 0.2 0.1 1.0 -2.4 24.8 28.2 0.9 3.2 6.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 88 12 100 1.7 1.7 1.0 0.6 58.2 59.8 0.4 1.4 2.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 2.0 1.6 0.6 -2.8 22.0 27.5 2.4 4.1 6.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 79 21 0 100 0.4 0.8 0.4 -2.7 23.0 25.8 1.5 3.4 5.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 76 24 0 100 0.6 0.9 1.0 -2.6 24.8 27.6 1.2 3.3 6.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 2.3 2.7 1.4 -1.7 35.5 36.2 2.7 4.4 7.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 1.3 1.1 0.1 -2.1 31.3 33.1 1.3 3.1 5.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 43 57 100 6.0 6.5 2.6 1.1 68.7 66.1 2.7 4.5 6.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 4.0 2.5 1.9 -0.9 43.9 43.0 1.0 2.8 6.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 87 13 0 100 2.0 1.6 -2.7 -4.5 13.7 18.0 3.0 4.6 5.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 2.1 1.8 1.7 0.4 55.8 56.0 -0.9 1.4 3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 70 30 0 100 0.3 0.3 1.6 -1.7 29.3 33.3 0.8 2.7 5.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------