***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.01.2014.-23.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 0.0 -1.8 0.5 56.3 58.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 -2.7 -2.8 -2.3 0.3 53.6 56.4 -3.7 -3.3 -1.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 -0.2 -0.8 -2.5 0.1 49.0 53.4 -1.4 -0.6 0.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 -5.8 -6.4 -5.7 -0.3 44.8 47.3 -7.5 -6.1 -5.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 -2.4 -2.9 -5.0 -0.1 43.4 49.7 -3.6 -2.7 -2.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 -3.4 -2.9 -5.4 1.2 62.7 64.0 -4.9 -3.7 -2.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 -2.1 -1.7 -2.0 0.5 58.4 59.9 -3.1 -2.5 -1.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 -7.0 -7.7 -4.7 1.5 66.0 67.1 -9.5 -8.4 -7.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 -2.0 -2.5 -4.1 0.0 44.4 52.1 -2.6 -2.3 -1.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 -2.1 -2.1 -4.7 0.9 56.5 60.8 -3.0 -2.4 -1.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 -2.4 -2.9 -4.8 0.3 48.9 54.4 -3.5 -2.8 -2.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 -2.6 -3.0 -4.2 1.2 60.8 64.4 -4.4 -3.6 -2.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 -1.7 -2.1 -4.2 1.4 65.6 67.2 -3.3 -2.9 -2.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 -1.5 -1.8 -3.8 0.3 51.3 54.4 -2.8 -1.9 -0.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 -1.5 -1.9 -5.1 -0.4 43.2 46.9 -2.7 -1.8 -1.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 -1.6 -1.9 -5.0 0.5 51.4 56.3 -2.7 -2.0 -1.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 -2.2 -2.6 -2.4 0.1 51.7 54.6 -3.7 -2.8 -1.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 -3.2 -3.7 -5.0 1.4 63.8 64.8 -5.4 -4.4 -3.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 -2.4 -2.8 -2.5 0.1 50.2 54.0 -3.6 -2.8 -1.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 22 78 100 -6.0 -5.9 -5.7 2.0 75.5 72.8 -9.0 -7.5 -6.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 -2.2 -2.5 -3.2 -0.1 44.1 51.2 -3.0 -2.5 -1.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 -2.3 -3.0 -2.7 -0.2 44.7 50.6 -3.8 -2.8 -1.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 -2.3 -2.7 -2.8 0.0 49.9 52.4 -3.9 -2.7 -1.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 -2.3 -2.5 -3.8 0.6 54.3 57.0 -3.6 -2.6 -1.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 -2.2 -2.2 -3.8 0.4 53.8 56.0 -3.4 -2.4 -1.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 -1.5 -1.2 -3.4 1.9 75.6 72.6 -3.6 -2.6 -1.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 -1.9 -1.6 -2.5 0.7 59.7 61.0 -3.0 -2.1 -1.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 -2.9 -3.6 -5.5 -0.5 42.4 45.9 -4.3 -3.3 -2.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 -4.2 -3.8 -5.2 1.7 70.4 69.1 -6.0 -5.5 -4.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 -2.1 -1.7 -2.1 0.4 56.1 57.6 -3.0 -2.6 -1.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------