***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.02.2014.-09.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 -2.5 0.5 46.9 54.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 -0.6 -2.4 -2.9 0.1 45.2 51.8 -5.4 -1.1 0.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 1.0 -1.5 -3.0 0.2 41.5 51.7 -1.9 0.2 2.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 -8.0 -7.1 -6.6 -0.5 39.5 45.0 -7.6 -4.6 -3.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 -4.4 -3.5 -5.9 -0.3 39.6 46.9 -4.7 -2.3 -1.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 -5.5 -3.5 -6.1 1.0 53.4 57.0 -5.0 -3.7 -2.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 -0.4 -1.0 -2.6 0.4 49.5 53.6 -4.9 -0.8 0.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 -6.0 -6.3 -5.4 1.6 59.9 60.6 -9.5 -7.9 -5.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 -3.4 -3.0 -4.9 -0.1 40.4 48.6 -4.0 -0.8 0.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 -1.1 -1.5 -5.4 0.9 53.3 55.6 -4.7 -1.7 0.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 -4.4 -3.3 -5.4 0.4 45.1 52.0 -4.8 -2.5 -0.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 -1.6 -2.8 -4.7 1.5 56.7 60.6 -5.2 -3.5 -1.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 -1.0 -2.2 -4.9 1.5 57.7 60.9 -4.4 -2.7 -1.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 -0.1 -0.7 -4.3 0.5 50.4 53.9 -3.3 -0.7 0.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 -4.1 -2.4 -6.1 -0.5 37.2 44.9 -3.5 -1.8 -0.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 -3.3 -1.7 -5.6 0.6 47.2 53.8 -4.1 -1.3 -0.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 -0.6 -1.8 -3.1 -0.2 45.9 50.1 -5.5 -1.0 0.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 -2.7 -3.2 -5.7 1.4 58.3 59.5 -6.1 -3.8 -2.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 -0.4 -3.2 -3.1 0.0 42.0 51.0 -4.8 -0.9 0.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 -5.1 -6.5 -6.6 2.0 63.2 62.7 -9.9 -7.5 -6.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 -0.7 -2.9 -3.9 -0.1 40.0 48.8 -4.5 -1.4 -0.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 -0.6 -2.9 -3.5 -0.5 41.5 47.4 -5.3 -1.1 0.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 -1.0 -3.0 -3.4 0.1 39.6 51.1 -4.3 -1.4 -0.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 -1.6 -2.3 -4.5 0.7 49.5 55.1 -4.6 -2.3 -0.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 -1.5 -2.7 -4.8 0.2 44.2 51.0 -4.2 -2.1 -0.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 -1.2 -2.3 -4.1 2.1 65.0 65.7 -4.0 -2.9 -2.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 -1.1 -2.0 -3.2 0.6 48.8 55.1 -5.1 -1.8 -0.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 -5.0 -5.6 -6.4 -0.5 37.5 45.1 -5.8 -2.8 -1.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 -3.3 -3.2 -6.0 1.7 60.4 61.5 -6.5 -4.1 -2.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 -0.1 -1.9 -2.7 0.3 45.5 52.9 -5.1 -0.6 0.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------