***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.01.2014.-02.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 0.0 -2.7 0.2 50.1 51.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 -2.0 -2.6 -3.5 -0.3 48.4 47.6 -6.4 -2.3 -1.0 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 -3.0 -2.4 -3.8 -0.8 40.3 40.8 -3.3 -1.2 0.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 -8.9 -9.5 -7.4 -1.7 30.9 32.9 -9.0 -6.4 -5.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 -5.2 -5.6 -6.2 -1.4 31.4 34.3 -5.3 -2.7 -1.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 -4.2 -3.7 -5.6 1.1 60.6 59.9 -7.3 -4.8 -2.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 -2.0 -1.5 -3.0 0.2 53.9 53.5 -5.7 -2.3 -1.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 -8.3 -6.8 -4.7 1.9 64.2 63.9 -10.1 -8.7 -6.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 -4.7 -4.5 -5.4 -1.0 32.6 36.3 -4.5 -1.9 -0.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 -2.4 -2.8 -5.2 0.7 48.8 51.9 -4.9 -2.8 -1.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 -5.7 -4.9 -5.9 -0.8 35.1 39.5 -5.2 -3.2 -1.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 -3.4 -3.6 -4.5 1.0 55.9 57.1 -6.3 -3.9 -2.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 -2.9 -1.5 -3.9 1.6 64.1 63.2 -5.8 -3.5 -1.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 -1.1 -3.3 -4.9 -0.6 38.2 42.1 -4.2 -1.5 -0.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 -5.0 -4.2 -6.1 -1.6 34.4 35.0 -4.2 -2.4 -0.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 -4.7 -4.5 -5.9 -0.5 38.8 42.4 -5.3 -2.8 -1.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 -2.2 -3.7 -4.0 -0.6 45.9 44.8 -5.1 -2.6 -1.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 -3.6 -3.6 -5.2 1.6 56.2 59.4 -6.4 -3.8 -3.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 -1.9 -3.5 -3.8 -0.6 42.6 43.0 -5.7 -2.4 -0.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 -6.4 -5.4 -5.3 3.1 78.0 75.4 -10.9 -8.2 -6.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 -4.7 -4.2 -4.5 -1.1 34.5 36.2 -4.7 -2.3 -0.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 -2.0 -4.8 -4.5 -1.2 38.3 38.1 -5.8 -2.6 -1.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 -5.3 -4.7 -4.2 -0.9 36.0 38.7 -5.2 -2.2 -1.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 -2.0 -3.8 -4.8 0.0 42.3 46.3 -5.0 -2.4 -1.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 -1.8 -2.2 -4.2 -0.1 48.4 48.0 -4.8 -2.2 -1.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 23 77 100 -2.0 -1.5 -2.9 2.6 76.3 74.7 -5.2 -3.7 -2.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 -2.6 -2.1 -2.8 0.6 57.0 56.2 -5.7 -3.2 -0.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 -6.8 -7.1 -7.2 -2.2 26.5 29.2 -6.3 -4.1 -1.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 -4.1 -3.5 -5.0 2.6 72.1 69.7 -8.1 -5.5 -3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 -1.6 -1.8 -3.1 0.0 50.4 50.0 -5.7 -1.9 -0.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------