***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.01.2015.-22.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 87 13 100 28.5 36.5 47.8 118.0 65.3 63.1 18.5 25.7 36.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 37.9 36.9 44.2 122.1 68.2 64.6 18.4 23.8 33.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 38.5 47.2 49.1 119.1 68.5 63.7 28.5 35.2 45.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 58.6 61.2 57.2 124.2 73.1 67.3 35.3 43.9 50.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 60.0 65.1 60.1 128.5 76.3 70.3 34.3 44.7 57.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 46.2 51.8 62.4 132.6 78.6 70.9 27.9 34.5 45.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 25.9 30.1 43.6 120.7 64.6 63.3 19.5 22.3 32.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 82.9 90.6 71.0 141.6 83.5 74.7 55.5 66.9 81.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 49.4 56.2 61.1 129.3 77.0 70.8 22.5 32.7 41.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 60.5 72.2 67.5 133.6 80.1 72.9 31.9 38.9 54.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 47.2 57.1 59.2 132.2 80.4 71.4 26.2 33.0 45.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 54.7 64.9 62.2 140.5 81.5 73.4 26.4 35.4 48.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 57.5 65.9 62.4 134.9 77.7 72.0 29.2 38.3 58.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 43 57 100 57.2 64.4 60.6 123.1 73.2 66.4 36.3 46.9 60.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 28.6 28.6 52.4 117.1 66.1 62.4 18.2 24.6 28.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 53.0 64.9 58.5 131.3 76.8 70.6 24.7 32.4 46.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 34.0 36.0 43.1 127.3 69.2 66.4 21.8 25.5 35.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 55.6 65.3 74.1 133.8 80.0 73.1 28.4 39.1 54.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 38.1 40.1 45.7 121.8 69.1 64.7 22.5 29.9 37.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 23 77 100 62.2 73.8 94.4 145.7 83.3 76.5 31.8 42.9 53.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 49.7 49.8 55.3 125.1 74.1 68.0 23.6 36.0 43.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 40.0 41.7 46.1 129.0 71.3 66.8 22.3 28.4 38.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 44 56 100 38.5 36.1 49.0 120.6 70.1 65.2 23.4 30.9 35.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 44 56 100 58.7 63.6 61.9 125.2 73.6 68.0 31.4 48.2 57.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 38.8 49.7 56.9 121.1 70.3 65.9 28.9 36.5 45.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 24 76 100 49.3 55.8 65.5 140.9 78.6 74.0 27.2 34.7 42.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 87 13 100 31.5 42.1 52.3 118.5 65.5 63.3 21.9 27.8 42.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 47.7 41.0 54.2 120.7 70.0 64.7 21.7 26.6 35.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 89.4 102.3 81.4 137.6 82.8 74.5 52.7 69.9 76.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 27.8 40.9 45.1 119.8 67.1 63.6 18.5 24.1 40.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------