***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.02.2015.-22.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 4.8 8.9 8.1 86.2 50.9 46.0 3.5 8.9 11.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 1.4 4.2 7.7 90.2 55.8 46.4 0.5 3.3 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 2.2 6.2 8.5 93.6 53.1 46.8 1.7 4.5 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 4.6 9.0 9.9 98.2 58.6 49.3 3.9 6.6 10.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 4.5 8.2 9.6 96.0 58.4 48.7 5.0 7.7 10.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 8.7 11.1 10.9 109.4 65.6 53.6 4.1 7.7 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 1.5 4.2 7.6 86.2 53.5 47.0 0.9 3.3 7.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 9.1 18.6 10.5 99.8 59.9 51.2 9.8 14.2 20.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 2.3 6.2 9.7 93.8 57.7 47.9 2.7 4.8 10.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 3.3 7.1 10.5 96.8 59.2 49.6 4.1 5.7 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 4.3 9.9 9.4 102.7 60.4 51.4 2.9 8.1 11.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 10.6 11.3 9.4 105.1 61.4 52.5 4.4 8.2 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 11.0 11.6 10.3 108.0 62.0 53.2 7.9 9.3 13.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 3.8 10.0 11.1 103.1 59.3 48.8 4.3 7.2 13.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 5.7 8.5 10.4 106.7 65.8 51.8 0.8 3.2 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 8.3 9.1 9.6 106.1 60.8 52.0 3.8 6.3 10.1 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 1.9 4.3 7.2 88.7 55.7 46.1 1.3 3.6 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 3.5 9.1 11.8 97.4 56.9 49.1 3.8 6.4 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 1.6 6.4 7.9 93.5 57.3 46.2 1.5 3.4 9.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 11.9 10.5 13.6 96.2 55.4 50.5 5.5 9.6 14.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 2.0 5.3 8.9 91.3 54.0 47.0 1.9 3.3 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 2.0 4.9 7.6 90.1 54.3 44.6 1.5 4.1 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 2.1 8.5 8.6 98.6 59.7 46.8 2.0 4.4 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 3.9 8.3 10.7 100.0 57.8 48.3 5.0 6.7 12.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 2.6 5.3 9.5 88.8 50.7 46.7 2.8 5.0 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 10.0 9.8 9.9 105.8 60.1 52.6 6.2 9.3 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 3.6 6.2 8.8 84.5 49.4 45.7 3.6 6.8 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 5.2 8.2 10.0 104.3 62.8 50.8 1.4 3.1 8.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 9.4 19.0 12.4 95.3 55.9 48.8 8.4 16.1 24.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 2.4 5.6 7.8 89.5 55.2 46.3 1.5 5.5 8.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------