***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.02.2015.-08.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 5.8 6.9 11.0 115.5 71.4 60.6 0.2 2.6 6.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 3.2 4.7 9.2 103.7 69.0 58.9 0.8 2.3 4.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 7.7 9.0 11.2 113.0 71.3 60.6 0.4 2.0 6.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 10.2 9.9 14.4 134.5 73.1 63.8 3.2 8.0 8.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 13.0 14.8 15.6 146.4 76.6 66.6 1.8 6.0 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 9.5 11.7 19.2 167.7 80.8 72.1 1.3 6.3 8.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 6.1 6.9 9.2 106.1 68.7 59.8 0.9 2.4 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 16.1 22.8 20.1 178.0 81.2 72.4 5.2 8.6 10.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 8.0 9.4 15.5 141.3 76.8 65.7 1.2 3.8 5.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 9.4 11.6 18.2 158.2 78.3 69.2 2.6 4.4 7.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 10.2 12.0 16.4 159.5 78.8 69.3 1.7 5.5 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 24 76 100 8.6 12.1 18.1 178.7 81.6 72.4 2.3 3.8 6.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 25 75 100 10.7 11.9 18.6 171.1 80.0 72.6 1.4 7.6 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 6.0 11.3 14.2 124.5 71.0 62.9 1.6 4.4 9.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 3.4 6.3 12.6 117.9 69.2 60.4 0.2 2.1 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 8.3 10.0 16.8 160.5 79.0 70.0 1.8 4.8 9.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 4.9 5.4 8.5 107.1 67.9 60.2 1.4 3.3 5.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 10.0 14.2 19.6 155.6 78.4 69.3 1.3 3.1 6.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 4.5 6.7 9.5 103.0 68.5 59.0 0.6 2.4 6.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 6.8 8.5 25.5 177.0 81.6 73.5 2.6 4.7 5.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 7.7 8.7 13.4 129.5 74.1 63.3 0.5 3.0 7.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 6.0 6.7 8.9 108.8 69.3 60.8 1.2 2.7 6.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 3.6 5.3 10.5 106.1 67.6 60.0 0.2 2.3 5.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 10.1 12.6 15.3 132.2 74.4 64.4 2.0 4.1 8.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 42 58 100 7.8 8.8 13.5 126.8 73.0 63.2 1.2 4.3 6.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 11.4 14.0 20.1 182.8 81.3 74.6 1.7 4.3 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 7.3 8.8 12.3 119.7 71.6 61.9 0.7 3.9 8.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 43 57 100 6.7 7.0 14.3 132.4 72.7 62.8 0.6 3.3 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 13.3 16.6 21.7 163.6 79.1 71.5 3.2 7.9 12.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 5.6 5.4 9.7 106.1 70.3 59.8 0.6 2.4 5.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------