***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.01.2015.-01.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 12.4 15.2 17.3 158.4 83.2 74.5 1.2 6.2 12.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 21 79 100 9.4 11.3 15.2 167.8 83.2 77.2 1.1 6.1 9.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 15.3 20.6 17.3 156.8 79.7 73.8 2.7 6.1 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 16.2 19.2 19.6 147.7 75.6 71.2 4.9 9.5 13.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 16.6 19.2 21.4 155.5 76.5 73.3 5.6 10.1 13.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 13.6 15.4 20.0 157.5 77.5 74.0 3.6 8.0 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 19 81 100 10.3 13.2 15.2 170.0 82.7 78.2 1.6 5.9 8.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 22 78 100 23.2 30.7 25.3 177.2 84.1 78.7 9.4 12.3 18.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 14.3 17.0 22.0 166.9 79.1 76.3 2.2 7.2 10.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 15.7 17.9 23.6 167.6 79.9 76.8 5.7 9.5 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 13.2 13.6 20.7 157.4 76.1 73.7 4.3 7.4 12.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 13.6 17.8 22.2 171.6 83.0 77.4 2.4 5.2 9.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 17.4 22.3 21.4 161.5 79.8 76.5 4.1 8.3 16.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 15.3 19.1 19.7 156.1 76.3 73.5 3.6 6.7 17.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 48 52 100 9.4 12.4 16.9 133.9 71.8 67.7 0.9 4.9 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 14.3 17.5 20.5 156.8 77.7 74.1 4.1 7.2 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 16 84 100 9.1 11.0 15.2 178.6 85.5 79.7 1.2 5.1 6.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 20 80 100 15.3 18.0 25.6 173.5 83.4 78.7 5.3 6.8 10.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 9.7 11.2 15.8 163.8 81.2 76.0 1.3 6.8 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 15 85 100 16.2 22.3 34.7 197.7 88.2 83.0 3.8 6.4 13.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 15.8 22.5 20.2 165.5 81.1 76.0 3.4 6.6 10.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 20 80 100 10.4 13.2 16.1 175.9 83.7 78.5 1.0 5.9 8.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 11.5 14.2 16.7 156.2 77.7 74.3 1.2 4.4 9.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 15.6 18.0 21.1 161.1 79.1 74.7 4.9 8.6 13.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 17.9 21.6 20.3 150.1 77.3 72.8 4.0 8.0 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 20 80 100 14.8 18.3 23.5 176.5 85.3 79.9 4.2 8.4 13.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 14.3 16.7 18.7 154.5 79.3 73.8 2.7 8.4 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 44 56 100 10.2 12.1 17.6 138.7 71.7 68.4 1.4 4.8 10.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 18 82 100 22.6 30.4 28.5 182.6 85.7 80.6 7.7 13.9 18.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 26 74 100 9.4 12.7 15.7 162.8 81.7 76.0 1.3 4.3 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------