***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.01.2015.-22.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 7.0 7.0 4.8 0.6 66.3 60.6 3.9 5.0 6.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 87 13 100 5.4 5.8 4.7 0.5 63.0 59.6 2.8 4.9 5.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 6.2 6.6 4.9 0.5 63.0 59.5 4.2 5.6 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 -0.1 0.4 2.7 0.6 61.5 60.2 -1.6 -0.6 0.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 5.7 6.2 3.1 0.3 60.3 57.1 4.1 5.2 7.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 5.2 5.7 2.0 0.2 58.1 54.7 3.7 4.8 6.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 5.0 5.7 4.6 0.5 62.7 60.0 2.6 4.5 5.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 -1.5 -2.0 2.0 -0.3 46.4 48.8 -2.7 -1.7 -1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 6.3 6.7 3.9 0.2 61.3 56.5 4.5 5.7 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 6.0 5.6 2.8 -0.1 52.2 51.6 4.3 5.5 7.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 5.9 6.0 3.0 0.2 57.0 55.1 4.4 5.4 7.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 5.9 5.6 2.6 -0.1 50.4 51.4 4.4 5.6 6.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 6.0 5.9 2.4 0.0 53.7 51.8 4.5 5.5 6.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 6.7 6.7 4.0 0.0 57.2 54.0 4.8 6.1 8.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 6.3 7.0 3.4 0.9 64.9 63.7 4.4 6.0 7.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 6.3 6.6 2.7 0.2 58.2 55.8 4.9 5.7 7.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 5.3 5.4 4.4 0.4 61.8 58.2 2.4 4.8 5.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 5.2 4.4 2.4 -0.3 47.8 48.6 3.6 4.6 6.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 5.6 5.9 4.9 0.5 63.0 59.2 3.2 5.1 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 2.1 1.2 0.3 -0.7 38.0 42.1 1.1 1.6 3.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 6.3 7.0 4.4 0.4 63.3 58.5 4.4 5.6 7.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 5.9 6.2 4.6 0.4 61.8 58.0 3.1 5.4 6.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 86 14 100 6.0 6.0 4.9 0.4 62.3 58.2 3.3 5.6 6.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 6.9 6.5 3.8 0.0 55.8 53.7 4.8 6.3 7.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 5.2 6.0 3.3 0.4 64.8 59.1 3.2 4.6 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 6.4 6.1 2.1 -0.1 50.9 50.1 4.7 6.1 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 6.8 6.4 4.1 0.5 66.6 59.8 4.0 4.8 6.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 6.9 7.7 3.1 0.7 62.6 61.4 4.5 6.5 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 2.5 1.4 1.5 -0.5 43.3 45.7 0.6 2.1 3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 5.3 5.7 4.8 0.6 63.5 60.2 2.9 4.9 6.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------