***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.02.2015.-22.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 6.8 6.3 6.2 0.0 53.5 49.9 4.9 5.4 9.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 3.1 4.9 6.2 0.0 52.3 49.7 3.1 4.7 7.5 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 3.5 6.4 6.4 -0.1 53.7 49.2 3.5 5.8 8.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 0.9 0.4 4.0 -0.2 52.5 48.5 -2.7 -0.2 0.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 3.7 6.2 4.5 -0.3 52.3 47.4 3.7 6.1 9.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 3.2 4.7 3.4 -0.2 49.0 47.2 2.9 5.0 7.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 2.6 4.5 6.2 0.1 53.5 50.1 2.8 4.2 8.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 -4.3 -2.0 3.6 -0.4 48.2 46.1 -3.5 -1.9 -0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 4.0 6.5 5.2 -0.3 50.6 47.1 4.4 6.5 9.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 4.0 6.2 4.3 -0.4 48.5 46.4 4.2 6.2 9.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 4.4 6.9 4.4 -0.3 51.0 47.0 4.5 6.7 8.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 3.3 5.6 4.2 -0.3 48.8 46.8 4.1 5.6 8.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 4.0 5.4 3.9 -0.3 47.4 47.0 4.5 5.7 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 4.2 6.3 5.7 -0.2 48.9 48.0 3.6 6.6 9.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 3.8 5.9 4.2 0.0 50.1 50.4 3.4 5.9 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 4.2 6.4 4.1 -0.3 50.1 47.2 4.7 6.4 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 2.6 4.1 6.0 0.0 51.3 49.1 2.6 4.0 7.3 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 3.7 5.3 4.0 -0.5 46.3 45.8 3.3 5.6 8.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 3.0 6.2 6.4 0.0 52.4 49.5 2.9 5.3 7.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 0.7 1.9 1.8 -0.6 45.8 44.3 0.9 2.9 4.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 7.9 6.7 5.8 -0.2 52.1 48.1 3.8 6.6 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 3.1 5.3 6.2 -0.1 51.9 48.9 2.8 5.2 7.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 3.5 6.0 6.5 0.0 51.6 49.1 2.9 5.9 8.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 3.9 6.5 5.5 -0.3 48.1 47.6 3.7 6.5 9.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 5.8 4.8 4.6 -0.1 52.6 48.9 3.6 4.7 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 7.0 5.3 3.6 -0.3 47.6 46.8 4.7 5.4 8.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 6.7 5.8 5.5 0.0 53.6 49.8 4.1 5.3 7.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 3.6 6.3 4.2 -0.2 50.8 49.0 3.8 6.3 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 -0.1 1.9 3.1 -0.5 46.2 45.5 0.1 2.6 4.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 2.9 5.0 6.3 0.0 52.6 49.9 3.0 4.8 8.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------