***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.02.2015.-15.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 5.6 7.5 5.7 1.1 58.7 60.0 3.0 4.4 8.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 5.3 6.8 5.5 0.9 57.7 58.9 3.1 4.3 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 6.1 5.4 5.8 1.0 58.1 59.2 3.1 4.9 9.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 0.4 1.2 3.6 0.9 60.5 59.7 -2.5 -0.8 1.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 6.4 5.3 4.1 0.8 56.7 58.5 3.6 5.0 8.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 5.7 6.1 3.2 0.7 58.5 57.1 3.3 4.8 7.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 4.9 6.2 5.4 0.9 58.2 59.1 2.7 4.1 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 -0.8 -1.0 3.2 0.4 53.5 54.8 -3.3 -1.4 -0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 6.7 5.8 4.8 0.8 56.7 57.9 3.4 5.5 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 7.0 6.2 4.0 0.6 55.3 56.2 3.5 5.8 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 6.6 5.7 4.0 0.7 55.8 57.6 3.7 5.5 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 6.6 6.6 3.7 0.5 55.0 55.8 3.2 5.4 8.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 6.6 6.2 3.4 0.5 55.6 56.4 4.4 5.6 9.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 6.4 6.3 5.0 0.6 57.7 55.9 3.6 5.3 8.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 7.8 7.5 3.9 1.0 62.6 60.5 2.5 6.1 7.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 7.1 6.9 3.7 0.7 56.5 57.6 4.8 6.0 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 5.4 6.0 5.2 0.7 57.1 57.7 2.6 4.6 7.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 6.1 5.9 3.7 0.5 55.7 55.2 3.6 5.1 8.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 5.1 6.7 5.7 0.9 57.2 58.8 3.2 3.9 8.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 3.8 3.6 1.7 0.3 51.9 53.0 0.6 3.4 4.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 6.0 5.4 5.4 0.9 57.9 59.0 3.2 4.8 8.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 6.1 5.9 5.4 0.7 56.9 57.2 3.6 5.1 7.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 5.6 6.1 5.8 0.9 57.0 58.2 3.8 4.3 7.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 6.1 5.9 4.9 0.7 57.9 56.6 3.6 4.8 8.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 5.9 5.7 4.2 0.9 60.2 59.9 3.1 4.8 7.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 7.0 6.2 3.2 0.5 54.7 55.5 4.1 6.1 8.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 5.9 6.3 5.0 1.0 59.4 59.8 3.4 4.8 8.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 8.6 7.9 3.9 0.9 61.4 59.6 3.7 6.0 8.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 2.8 2.3 2.9 0.4 54.0 54.3 0.0 1.9 4.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 5.1 6.9 5.7 1.0 58.5 59.4 2.9 4.1 8.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------