***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.02.2015.-08.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 6.0 5.0 3.6 0.2 54.2 52.3 2.1 4.9 10.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 6.2 5.9 3.6 0.3 55.4 53.3 2.8 5.1 9.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 6.9 6.3 3.8 0.2 54.0 52.8 3.7 5.8 10.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 86 14 100 1.2 0.9 1.8 0.4 54.3 53.8 -1.8 0.7 4.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 86 14 100 6.6 6.3 2.0 0.0 52.8 51.1 3.5 5.8 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 6.2 5.0 0.6 -0.3 46.2 47.1 2.7 5.5 7.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 5.9 4.9 3.4 0.2 55.3 52.7 2.0 4.8 9.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 0.0 -2.1 0.7 -0.8 43.3 43.8 -3.1 -0.6 1.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 7.4 6.7 2.6 -0.1 50.9 49.8 4.1 6.5 10.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 7.2 5.8 1.5 -0.6 46.1 46.1 4.6 6.2 9.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 7.0 6.2 1.7 -0.1 49.9 49.1 3.7 6.2 9.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 6.8 5.4 1.3 -0.5 45.4 46.1 4.1 6.0 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 6.9 5.0 0.9 -0.5 44.6 46.0 3.6 5.9 9.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 8.6 7.5 2.8 -0.3 48.9 48.9 4.7 7.6 11.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 87 13 100 6.7 6.7 2.3 0.8 58.8 57.3 4.6 6.2 8.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 7.3 6.4 1.4 -0.1 49.8 49.1 4.1 6.4 9.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 6.4 5.6 3.3 0.2 54.7 52.3 3.0 5.5 9.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 6.5 5.0 1.0 -0.9 42.7 43.5 4.0 5.8 8.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 6.7 6.2 3.7 0.3 54.7 53.4 3.0 5.5 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 3.6 1.5 -1.1 -1.4 35.7 38.5 1.2 2.7 4.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 7.2 6.9 3.2 0.1 52.8 51.6 3.9 6.4 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 7.2 6.7 3.6 0.3 55.0 53.0 3.7 6.1 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 6.6 6.0 3.8 0.2 53.1 52.6 4.1 5.5 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 8.1 7.2 2.6 -0.4 48.3 48.0 4.4 7.2 10.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 5.5 4.8 2.1 0.1 53.2 51.2 3.1 4.5 8.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 6.0 4.8 0.6 -0.6 44.4 44.4 3.3 5.0 8.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 6.0 5.2 2.7 0.0 53.3 50.9 3.0 4.9 9.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 86 14 100 7.7 7.9 2.1 0.6 56.2 55.2 5.7 7.2 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 3.7 1.6 0.1 -1.2 39.6 40.9 0.8 2.7 5.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 5.9 5.9 3.7 0.3 55.5 53.3 2.3 4.7 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------