***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.01.2015.-01.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 89 11 100 3.1 5.4 3.7 1.0 65.7 64.6 0.5 2.7 5.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 90 10 100 3.2 5.6 3.6 0.9 64.8 63.8 0.8 2.7 5.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 90 10 100 4.2 6.2 3.7 0.8 63.9 62.6 1.6 3.7 6.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 91 9 100 -0.9 -0.3 1.4 1.1 65.0 64.4 -3.1 -1.2 -0.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 94 6 100 5.0 5.6 1.9 0.6 60.6 60.7 2.4 4.8 5.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 94 6 100 3.7 3.9 1.0 0.7 57.0 57.4 2.2 3.5 4.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 90 10 100 2.1 5.3 3.6 1.0 65.3 64.8 0.3 1.6 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 97 3 100 -2.1 -2.0 0.5 -0.3 51.9 52.2 -3.0 -2.2 -0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 95 5 100 4.8 6.4 2.8 0.6 60.7 60.2 2.7 4.6 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 96 4 100 4.2 4.7 1.4 -0.1 54.3 54.6 1.8 4.1 6.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 95 5 100 4.7 5.3 1.8 0.4 58.4 58.8 2.5 4.6 6.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 96 4 100 4.4 5.0 1.2 0.1 57.0 55.6 2.6 4.2 6.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 95 5 100 4.0 4.9 1.4 0.1 58.0 55.0 2.4 3.7 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 96 4 100 4.7 5.5 2.5 0.0 56.5 57.5 2.4 4.5 7.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 5.0 5.9 3.2 1.9 68.8 68.5 2.6 3.2 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 94 6 100 5.0 5.6 1.8 0.7 60.9 59.8 2.9 4.7 6.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 88 12 100 2.6 5.2 3.2 0.7 63.7 62.9 0.8 2.0 5.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 96 4 100 3.0 3.2 0.7 -0.5 52.1 51.5 1.6 2.9 4.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 91 9 100 3.1 5.8 3.6 0.8 63.6 62.8 0.5 2.6 6.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 92 8 100 1.4 1.1 -1.2 -0.9 46.0 45.2 0.4 1.1 1.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 93 7 100 4.4 6.3 3.3 0.7 63.1 61.4 2.6 4.2 6.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 89 11 100 3.9 5.3 3.3 0.6 63.9 62.4 1.4 3.3 5.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 92 8 100 3.9 5.0 3.5 0.6 62.3 61.3 1.2 3.5 5.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 96 4 100 4.6 6.0 2.4 0.0 56.3 56.7 2.3 4.5 6.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 91 9 100 3.4 4.3 2.2 0.6 62.7 61.4 1.5 3.1 4.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 97 3 100 4.6 4.8 0.8 0.0 54.4 54.1 3.2 4.6 5.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 90 10 100 3.7 5.9 3.0 0.8 63.9 63.0 0.9 3.4 6.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 89 11 100 4.9 5.5 2.4 1.5 66.4 66.2 3.1 4.4 5.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 97 3 100 0.9 0.5 -0.1 -0.7 48.1 48.6 -0.8 0.8 2.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 88 12 100 3.5 5.2 3.7 1.0 66.2 64.6 0.3 2.9 5.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------