***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.01.2015.-22.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 -0.3 -0.7 -1.6 1.2 71.9 66.2 -3.2 -1.4 -1.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 -1.1 -1.3 -1.9 1.0 68.4 64.3 -3.9 -3.4 -1.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 0.5 0.9 -1.9 1.2 69.9 65.8 -1.7 -0.8 0.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 -5.1 -5.1 -4.4 1.6 69.2 67.2 -7.7 -6.3 -5.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 -1.9 -2.2 -4.1 1.4 67.5 64.7 -3.7 -3.1 -2.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 -3.5 -2.9 -5.9 1.1 62.2 61.1 -5.1 -3.8 -2.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 -1.0 -0.8 -1.8 1.0 70.7 65.1 -3.4 -2.7 -1.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 -8.0 -8.1 -6.0 0.6 59.0 56.2 -9.6 -8.4 -7.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 -1.3 -1.2 -3.4 1.4 68.9 64.7 -2.9 -2.5 -1.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 -2.2 -1.8 -5.3 0.8 61.4 59.0 -3.5 -2.6 -1.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 -1.7 -2.0 -4.4 1.2 65.4 62.8 -3.8 -2.9 -2.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 -3.6 -2.9 -5.0 0.9 61.3 58.8 -4.6 -3.9 -2.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 -2.7 -2.5 -5.1 1.0 60.6 59.6 -3.7 -3.0 -2.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 -1.6 -1.4 -4.0 0.6 59.1 58.0 -3.0 -2.0 -0.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 -0.8 -0.7 -3.4 2.0 73.8 70.4 -3.0 -1.9 -1.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 43 57 100 -1.3 -1.4 -4.7 1.3 65.0 63.3 -2.8 -2.2 -1.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 -1.2 -1.3 -2.1 0.8 65.5 62.0 -3.9 -2.8 -1.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 -4.0 -4.1 -6.4 0.4 56.5 54.5 -5.7 -4.4 -3.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 -1.3 -1.2 -2.0 1.0 68.2 64.3 -3.9 -2.9 -1.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 -7.5 -7.3 -8.0 -0.1 53.4 50.5 -9.6 -8.0 -6.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 -1.5 -1.3 -2.4 1.4 70.2 65.9 -3.2 -2.6 -1.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 -1.5 -1.8 -2.1 0.7 62.7 61.6 -3.9 -3.1 -1.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 -1.4 -1.6 -2.3 1.0 68.1 64.0 -4.3 -2.8 -1.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 -2.3 -1.8 -4.2 0.8 61.2 59.2 -3.8 -2.7 -1.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 -1.6 -1.6 -3.5 1.3 67.2 65.0 -3.5 -2.7 -1.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 -2.4 -2.5 -5.0 0.7 55.6 57.3 -3.8 -2.6 -2.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 -1.1 -1.4 -2.5 1.2 69.3 65.5 -3.4 -2.3 -1.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 -2.2 -2.1 -3.9 1.8 70.7 68.3 -4.4 -3.5 -2.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 -5.3 -5.5 -7.2 0.0 52.7 51.0 -6.2 -5.6 -4.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 -0.9 -0.9 -1.8 1.1 70.5 65.7 -3.3 -2.6 -1.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------