***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.02.2015.-08.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 -0.5 -0.8 -3.1 0.7 53.1 54.2 -4.9 -0.9 1.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 -1.4 -0.7 -3.3 0.5 56.0 53.7 -5.6 -1.8 0.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 0.6 0.8 -3.2 0.9 55.0 55.0 -2.1 0.0 2.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 -4.8 -5.5 -6.0 1.1 51.6 54.7 -8.1 -5.6 -3.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 -2.3 -2.8 -5.8 1.0 49.8 53.1 -4.9 -2.7 -1.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 -6.0 -4.4 -7.9 0.2 44.9 47.6 -5.2 -4.4 -3.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 -0.9 -0.9 -3.3 0.4 54.7 53.8 -5.1 -1.2 -0.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 -6.8 -8.7 -8.2 -0.4 41.8 43.3 -10.3 -7.4 -6.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 -0.7 -1.1 -5.0 1.0 49.3 53.2 -4.0 -1.0 0.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 -1.5 -2.3 -7.2 0.1 44.0 46.5 -4.7 -2.0 -0.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 -2.1 -2.7 -6.2 0.7 45.8 50.7 -5.2 -2.6 -0.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 -3.4 -4.3 -6.9 0.2 43.9 47.0 -5.4 -4.0 -2.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 -3.0 -3.7 -6.9 0.4 45.1 48.7 -4.4 -3.5 -2.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 -0.3 -1.2 -5.7 0.0 43.4 47.7 -3.6 -0.7 0.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 -1.6 -1.7 -4.9 1.7 58.1 58.7 -3.8 -2.2 -1.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 -1.9 -2.5 -6.3 0.9 47.8 52.4 -4.1 -2.4 -0.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 -1.0 -1.1 -3.4 0.3 52.4 52.7 -5.6 -1.4 0.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 -3.6 -5.6 -8.6 -0.6 41.7 42.9 -6.2 -3.9 -3.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 -0.9 -0.7 -3.3 0.6 55.0 53.7 -5.1 -1.3 -0.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 -10.4 -10.0 -10.2 -1.2 38.0 39.7 -10.6 -8.6 -5.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 -1.1 -1.2 -3.8 1.1 52.7 55.1 -4.7 -1.5 -0.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 -0.7 -0.9 -3.4 0.3 50.9 52.6 -5.8 -1.0 0.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 -1.3 -1.6 -3.6 0.6 49.8 52.9 -4.5 -1.5 -0.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 -1.3 -2.2 -5.9 0.1 44.7 48.1 -4.7 -1.6 -0.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 -1.9 -2.4 -5.3 0.8 51.4 53.2 -4.5 -2.5 -0.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 -2.9 -3.8 -6.8 0.2 43.6 46.6 -4.5 -3.4 -2.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 -1.3 -1.9 -4.1 0.7 51.5 53.5 -4.5 -2.0 0.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 -2.6 -2.9 -5.4 1.5 54.3 56.7 -5.7 -3.1 -1.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 -4.2 -6.7 -9.5 -1.2 39.2 40.1 -6.9 -4.9 -2.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 -0.7 -0.5 -3.2 0.6 56.7 54.2 -5.3 -1.2 0.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------