***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.01.2021.-21.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 40.9 43.5 58.9 136.2 75.6 70.2 19.8 25.7 36.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 39.1 45.8 48.4 129.1 73.6 66.3 18.4 25.7 33.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 49.9 48.6 57.3 133.4 75.1 68.7 28.0 34.1 45.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 57.0 61.6 63.5 129.1 73.6 67.3 34.6 43.4 50.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 55.7 63.6 68.1 139.8 81.5 73.4 33.9 44.5 57.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 45.7 54.8 66.8 141.9 82.2 71.6 25.8 33.0 41.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 37.0 43.3 48.0 129.8 72.9 66.6 19.5 21.3 31.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 80.3 87.3 72.1 137.3 81.3 72.7 53.4 67.3 80.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 48.8 57.1 67.3 137.0 79.7 72.4 22.3 32.3 38.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 60.3 70.9 72.2 137.9 82.2 73.2 33.2 39.3 49.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 46.3 59.2 66.6 138.9 81.9 73.0 25.6 31.1 42.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 54.0 64.3 65.2 138.9 80.7 72.8 25.8 34.9 45.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 56.2 73.0 73.2 147.3 85.6 75.1 27.9 38.2 58.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 59.8 63.4 69.9 129.8 76.2 69.8 37.0 50.1 57.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 30.4 29.0 53.2 114.6 65.4 59.3 15.5 24.6 29.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 52.1 65.0 67.0 142.1 82.6 73.1 24.1 32.2 41.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 37.6 38.2 45.8 129.4 73.9 66.2 22.2 26.3 35.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 56.0 66.6 75.2 137.5 83.5 73.4 28.0 38.5 52.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 39.7 43.7 50.2 129.3 73.3 66.3 22.4 30.8 39.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 60.9 68.5 90.9 136.1 78.8 72.1 29.0 42.5 51.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 43.9 48.2 62.7 133.9 78.2 69.9 23.1 35.6 41.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 41.4 44.0 48.5 130.4 74.1 66.6 23.0 29.9 38.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 39.0 39.7 53.9 128.5 72.5 66.4 23.4 31.1 35.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 60.5 69.0 68.0 133.6 80.2 71.1 35.7 47.1 58.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 48.6 56.0 68.0 136.7 78.5 71.4 28.9 35.4 45.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 23 77 100 49.0 58.0 70.1 142.1 82.1 73.6 25.0 34.7 43.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 49.0 60.5 62.9 137.2 78.1 71.3 21.9 27.8 42.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 48.7 43.5 58.0 124.3 71.0 64.4 20.1 25.2 33.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 27 73 100 87.1 99.5 79.1 135.6 81.2 72.6 50.5 69.2 79.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 38.0 43.5 51.2 131.1 73.2 67.2 18.5 23.5 40.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------