***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.02.2021.-21.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 10.5 12.9 13.8 128.5 69.2 56.9 3.9 9.4 11.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 5.3 12.1 11.7 121.5 68.1 55.8 1.3 2.9 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 3.0 11.9 12.8 121.3 67.0 54.8 2.7 5.4 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 11.0 11.8 13.6 114.3 63.7 54.7 7.1 10.2 12.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 6.2 10.1 13.4 113.8 62.2 53.1 6.1 8.9 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 7.3 7.6 13.3 113.2 63.5 55.3 4.4 5.8 8.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 6.2 7.0 11.7 120.8 68.6 56.1 1.3 4.2 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 19.5 19.6 14.0 110.1 60.4 52.6 11.0 17.8 22.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 3.6 7.5 14.0 115.0 63.0 53.0 4.0 5.4 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 11.0 11.6 14.2 109.1 60.4 51.7 5.6 9.4 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 9.1 8.4 12.4 108.4 59.8 52.0 5.2 6.8 9.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 10.7 12.1 12.3 109.5 60.8 52.8 5.3 8.4 14.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 10.9 11.2 13.0 108.8 61.0 53.0 6.5 9.6 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 10.5 11.7 15.3 112.9 65.8 54.2 5.0 7.6 11.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 6.9 10.0 12.8 110.9 66.1 55.4 1.1 3.9 10.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 9.1 8.9 12.4 109.0 60.6 53.2 4.0 7.2 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 5.3 8.1 11.2 122.0 68.7 55.4 1.2 3.6 7.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 9.9 11.2 14.7 107.7 60.7 51.7 3.8 7.2 12.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 5.4 8.6 11.8 120.7 67.5 55.3 1.5 3.0 8.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 12.1 13.6 18.8 111.6 62.1 53.3 5.1 9.7 16.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 3.2 10.9 13.6 119.2 64.4 54.0 2.2 5.2 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 6.6 6.7 11.6 122.6 66.9 54.7 2.0 4.8 6.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 6.2 10.2 12.2 116.9 67.1 54.5 2.3 4.1 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 9.5 9.3 13.9 111.8 64.2 52.8 5.0 7.9 10.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 8.4 9.6 14.7 122.4 66.4 55.8 3.2 6.8 9.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 10.2 10.2 13.2 112.9 60.8 55.7 4.9 9.4 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 7.8 10.1 14.3 125.8 68.2 56.7 3.7 5.9 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 6.9 8.6 12.8 111.3 64.6 55.0 1.5 4.8 9.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 18.8 20.0 15.8 107.3 61.0 52.0 11.7 15.6 22.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 6.6 8.8 12.2 122.4 68.3 56.0 1.5 4.6 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------