***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.02.2021.-14.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 7.8 7.6 13.2 123.9 68.6 57.7 1.6 5.2 7.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 6.3 12.8 11.7 123.5 68.8 56.6 1.1 2.9 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 10.2 10.4 12.8 122.0 69.0 57.9 2.0 6.0 8.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 12.0 18.3 13.5 116.6 67.3 55.4 2.6 8.6 17.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 14.1 15.7 12.8 108.4 62.6 52.7 2.8 11.2 16.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 8.6 11.7 11.5 101.0 62.3 50.2 5.0 6.7 11.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 6.1 8.4 11.6 128.2 70.4 56.4 1.9 4.5 8.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 19.8 20.7 12.7 104.8 63.5 52.1 8.5 16.8 21.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 11.0 12.6 13.3 107.1 61.3 53.0 3.3 9.3 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 11.3 13.4 13.0 102.8 60.5 51.5 6.1 9.3 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 10.7 10.8 12.0 108.2 63.8 53.2 4.8 8.6 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 9.9 13.1 11.8 109.9 66.3 53.3 2.7 7.0 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 11.7 12.4 12.1 106.3 63.3 51.5 3.8 9.5 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 16.5 18.1 14.3 107.8 62.5 54.5 8.5 14.8 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 7.0 16.0 12.9 120.1 70.5 55.4 1.7 3.9 11.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 11.2 10.7 11.7 106.8 63.5 52.6 1.4 9.2 11.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 9.6 11.4 11.2 127.8 68.5 56.0 1.8 8.4 11.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 10.4 11.5 13.6 102.5 61.2 51.4 3.9 7.2 13.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 8.7 12.1 11.9 121.1 68.7 56.8 2.5 5.6 11.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 5.2 11.6 16.0 100.2 61.6 51.2 3.3 10.1 12.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 9.7 13.2 13.1 113.3 65.5 55.6 2.9 6.9 13.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 8.3 11.9 11.6 122.3 68.9 55.7 3.2 6.4 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 8.7 16.9 12.4 118.3 68.8 57.0 1.4 5.9 16.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 11.7 15.0 13.6 109.9 63.4 54.4 4.6 9.4 15.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 10.8 13.7 14.3 119.5 65.5 57.0 2.1 5.7 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 6.5 6.7 11.8 106.7 63.7 50.8 2.4 4.6 6.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 10.3 11.2 13.7 123.1 67.6 57.3 2.4 5.9 10.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 9.3 15.8 12.0 109.6 67.0 53.3 1.8 6.2 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 19.3 18.0 14.1 101.3 60.8 51.0 8.7 15.1 22.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 6.0 11.7 12.2 124.6 69.8 57.0 2.4 4.1 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------