***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.02.2021.-07.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 2.7 4.3 12.1 112.9 64.6 54.1 0.4 1.5 4.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 2.0 4.0 10.2 112.3 65.5 54.8 0.5 1.1 4.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 3.5 6.1 12.8 122.7 69.3 58.3 0.5 2.0 5.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 7.5 8.1 13.7 123.2 68.8 58.2 3.2 6.6 8.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 6.7 9.0 14.3 124.2 68.8 57.6 2.1 5.4 8.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 6.8 8.5 14.1 126.0 69.4 58.0 1.6 5.7 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 3.0 2.8 9.7 108.4 62.5 53.7 0.7 1.9 3.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 12.1 14.7 15.9 127.7 69.8 58.2 5.9 9.2 13.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 5.9 5.5 15.8 136.7 73.2 62.4 1.2 3.7 5.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 5.3 8.2 16.1 134.2 72.3 60.4 1.8 4.5 6.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 4.7 7.6 14.9 131.5 72.7 60.4 1.6 3.6 6.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 4.2 5.8 14.2 126.5 69.7 58.2 2.2 3.2 5.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 6.0 8.9 15.7 132.1 70.8 60.8 2.6 5.0 8.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 4.4 9.6 17.3 134.0 73.5 62.8 1.1 3.0 7.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 4.1 8.4 12.6 124.2 73.0 58.8 0.3 2.0 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 5.9 7.5 14.8 133.8 72.6 60.7 2.0 5.1 6.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 2.4 3.3 9.7 111.3 66.0 56.4 0.7 1.8 3.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 4.4 7.0 17.5 134.6 71.3 61.0 1.8 3.4 5.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 2.4 5.0 11.2 118.2 67.4 56.6 0.4 1.2 4.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 4.6 6.3 22.2 133.7 70.7 59.6 2.3 3.6 4.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 4.4 6.5 14.2 125.6 69.9 59.3 0.9 3.3 5.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 2.9 5.3 11.7 126.5 70.9 59.9 0.6 1.7 3.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 2.9 3.6 12.8 122.7 68.6 58.5 0.2 1.5 3.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 42 58 100 7.8 9.2 16.4 132.8 72.7 62.7 2.0 3.2 7.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 5.3 4.9 13.4 108.5 61.4 51.9 1.1 3.5 5.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 6.2 5.6 14.4 118.5 63.0 56.5 1.8 4.6 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 4.5 6.4 12.5 109.3 61.7 52.2 0.4 3.3 6.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 4.0 6.7 13.1 126.0 72.4 58.3 0.7 2.5 5.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 10.3 14.0 18.9 134.3 71.0 60.6 3.8 9.1 12.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 1.0 3.6 10.7 113.0 65.0 55.1 0.8 1.9 3.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------