***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.01.2021.-31.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 12.1 16.5 19.9 177.8 82.4 74.6 1.2 6.2 13.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 11.0 14.1 14.8 159.1 78.1 70.5 1.0 6.7 10.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 16.9 24.4 18.9 164.7 79.8 70.6 2.9 7.0 13.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 43 57 100 14.8 17.6 22.7 155.9 75.6 68.3 3.9 9.5 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 25 75 100 16.8 30.9 27.6 202.0 88.7 77.7 4.7 9.9 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 11.2 30.5 27.9 219.0 90.6 77.4 3.6 7.2 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 10.3 12.3 15.0 161.9 77.0 71.7 1.5 5.8 10.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 21.7 31.4 29.5 194.0 88.4 77.1 6.4 11.0 18.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 14.4 19.0 24.2 186.9 85.9 74.8 2.2 6.0 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 17.6 23.9 28.9 196.7 88.9 77.2 4.0 9.5 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 12.0 23.3 27.2 194.3 88.1 75.6 3.4 8.4 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 10.4 22.0 26.9 196.2 86.9 76.7 2.0 3.3 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 25 75 100 15.3 36.0 32.4 223.8 92.2 78.9 3.9 5.8 9.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 20.9 27.0 23.0 163.1 78.8 71.0 4.1 9.5 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 5.1 7.1 15.0 107.0 63.7 56.8 0.6 3.6 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 13.4 25.5 28.0 204.8 88.2 75.9 2.2 6.6 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 43 57 100 8.7 10.7 13.7 156.9 75.5 69.7 0.9 5.7 9.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 25 75 100 15.1 22.9 29.5 198.8 89.2 77.9 4.1 6.9 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 43 57 100 12.6 15.4 15.3 157.0 78.1 70.0 1.5 9.1 10.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 27 73 100 13.6 24.3 34.0 191.8 88.1 77.4 2.8 5.4 10.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 14.9 24.8 21.8 174.3 82.4 72.2 3.9 6.8 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 47 53 100 10.1 13.0 13.7 151.0 76.0 68.0 0.4 6.5 9.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 42 58 100 11.9 16.0 16.5 155.8 77.6 69.6 1.2 6.2 13.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 18.5 22.8 24.1 176.1 82.3 73.2 5.6 12.3 18.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 26 74 100 18.6 28.5 25.6 191.1 87.1 78.2 2.5 10.2 17.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 13.6 23.6 30.7 214.3 89.5 79.3 4.2 7.3 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 24 76 100 15.6 19.1 22.4 188.6 85.4 78.0 2.2 9.6 13.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 4.8 11.9 20.1 146.2 73.4 64.4 0.9 3.4 9.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 23.3 32.5 30.3 193.1 87.8 77.0 6.8 12.1 19.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 11.7 17.8 16.0 164.0 79.3 71.4 1.3 5.3 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------