***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.01.2021.-21.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 5.7 4.3 5.1 0.0 43.7 49.4 3.3 5.0 6.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 5.4 3.3 5.2 0.0 43.0 49.3 2.8 4.7 6.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 6.1 4.9 5.7 0.1 45.7 50.6 3.8 5.4 6.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 0.1 -0.4 2.4 0.0 50.4 50.7 -1.4 -0.4 0.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 5.5 4.7 3.8 -0.2 46.5 48.9 4.0 4.9 7.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 3.5 4.0 2.3 -0.4 41.1 45.8 3.4 4.9 5.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 5.1 2.5 5.0 -0.2 41.7 47.5 2.2 4.3 6.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 -3.0 -2.3 2.8 -0.5 43.4 45.6 -2.5 -2.1 -1.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 6.1 5.3 4.7 -0.1 47.5 49.8 4.3 5.5 7.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 6.1 5.2 3.6 -0.3 45.5 47.6 4.0 5.6 7.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 5.9 5.2 4.0 -0.2 45.8 48.8 4.1 5.3 7.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 4.5 4.9 3.5 -0.3 44.8 47.3 4.1 5.5 6.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 4.3 5.0 3.3 -0.3 41.8 46.7 4.5 5.2 6.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 7.0 6.2 5.2 0.2 49.2 51.7 4.5 6.3 7.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 6.4 6.2 3.9 0.4 53.6 54.5 3.8 6.1 6.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 4.7 5.1 3.3 -0.3 42.6 47.2 4.8 5.5 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 5.3 3.1 5.0 -0.2 41.9 47.5 2.4 4.6 5.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 5.3 4.2 3.5 -0.2 46.1 48.3 3.2 4.8 6.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 5.5 4.0 5.5 0.1 44.7 50.5 3.0 4.8 6.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 0.5 1.4 1.3 -0.6 41.5 44.2 1.1 1.7 3.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 6.1 5.2 5.3 0.0 47.4 50.1 4.2 5.4 7.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 6.1 4.0 5.3 0.0 44.2 49.7 3.0 5.5 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 6.1 5.2 5.8 0.2 47.8 51.7 3.5 5.5 6.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 6.7 6.1 5.0 0.1 48.8 50.8 4.2 6.2 7.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 5.0 3.8 3.8 -0.1 45.2 48.7 3.1 4.4 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 4.2 5.4 2.6 -0.5 41.8 45.3 4.3 5.7 6.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 5.4 4.2 4.5 -0.2 42.1 47.6 3.8 4.7 6.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 6.9 6.5 3.1 0.1 50.9 51.6 4.6 6.4 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 2.3 1.6 2.8 -0.2 44.8 47.8 0.9 1.8 2.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 5.2 3.3 5.2 0.0 42.5 49.3 2.9 4.6 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------