***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.02.2021.-21.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 6.5 5.4 6.6 -0.2 49.8 49.0 4.6 5.5 9.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 6.1 4.5 6.6 -0.2 47.2 48.3 2.9 5.1 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 7.1 6.1 7.1 -0.1 49.3 49.3 4.1 6.2 7.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 0.8 -0.1 4.1 -0.2 50.0 50.6 -2.1 -0.1 0.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 3.5 5.8 5.3 -0.2 49.3 49.6 4.3 6.0 7.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 5.8 4.6 4.0 0.1 50.1 50.6 3.5 4.5 6.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 5.5 4.1 6.5 -0.2 47.1 47.8 2.6 4.4 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 -1.7 -2.5 4.5 -0.1 49.0 49.5 -3.7 -2.4 -1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 7.3 6.1 6.0 -0.1 50.6 49.5 4.8 6.1 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 6.8 5.8 5.1 -0.1 50.6 49.6 4.4 5.8 7.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 4.0 6.1 5.3 -0.1 49.2 49.6 4.3 6.2 7.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 6.7 5.5 5.1 -0.1 47.7 49.7 4.4 5.6 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 7.0 5.6 4.4 0.0 48.7 50.1 4.2 5.7 8.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 7.3 6.6 6.3 -0.2 51.0 49.2 3.1 6.5 8.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 6.8 6.6 4.9 0.0 52.2 52.3 3.5 6.2 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 7.7 6.2 4.8 -0.1 47.9 49.5 4.5 6.3 8.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 5.8 3.5 6.4 -0.3 45.4 47.1 2.3 4.8 6.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 6.2 5.3 5.1 -0.1 48.8 49.7 4.1 5.3 7.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 6.2 5.0 6.9 -0.1 47.7 48.6 3.0 5.3 7.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 3.0 1.8 2.8 -0.1 47.8 49.5 0.6 2.1 4.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 7.3 6.0 6.5 -0.2 50.0 49.7 4.6 6.0 7.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 6.0 4.2 6.7 -0.2 44.0 47.5 2.7 4.9 7.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 6.5 5.5 7.2 -0.1 49.4 48.9 2.8 5.5 7.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 7.3 6.6 6.2 -0.1 50.3 49.5 4.1 6.5 7.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 5.9 4.9 5.0 -0.2 50.4 49.8 3.3 4.8 7.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 6.9 5.6 4.3 0.1 48.0 50.8 4.0 5.8 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 6.1 4.9 5.9 -0.2 50.5 48.9 4.1 4.9 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 7.2 6.4 4.4 -0.1 50.3 50.9 3.7 6.4 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 2.6 1.7 4.3 -0.1 48.9 50.0 0.4 1.7 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 5.7 4.4 6.6 -0.2 47.5 48.6 3.3 4.5 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------