***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.02.2021.-14.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 3.5 4.4 5.1 -0.6 42.7 47.3 3.6 5.4 8.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 2.8 4.5 5.0 -0.7 38.3 46.5 3.7 5.2 8.5 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 3.3 4.7 5.6 -0.6 42.6 47.2 3.9 5.6 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 -2.5 -0.4 2.8 -0.5 45.3 47.8 -2.6 0.2 3.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 3.3 5.4 3.9 -0.6 44.4 47.5 4.4 6.0 8.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 3.2 4.9 2.9 -0.4 46.2 47.7 3.9 5.5 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 2.6 4.2 5.0 -0.7 38.1 46.3 3.5 5.1 8.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 -3.0 -1.1 3.4 -0.5 46.6 47.4 -2.8 -0.5 0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 3.9 6.1 4.7 -0.6 45.0 47.6 3.7 6.7 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 3.7 6.8 4.0 -0.5 46.3 47.7 3.8 6.9 8.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 3.4 6.2 4.1 -0.5 45.2 47.9 3.7 6.3 9.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 4.0 6.2 4.0 -0.4 46.3 47.9 3.5 6.4 8.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 3.4 6.2 3.3 -0.4 46.9 47.4 4.9 6.2 8.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 3.3 5.6 4.9 -0.6 43.0 47.6 4.2 6.6 9.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 3.3 5.9 3.5 -0.4 46.9 48.8 3.3 6.2 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 3.6 6.4 3.5 -0.5 45.0 47.2 5.3 6.7 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 2.7 3.8 4.9 -0.8 37.8 45.6 3.3 5.4 7.3 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 3.5 5.8 4.0 -0.4 47.5 48.3 3.4 6.2 8.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 2.8 4.1 5.3 -0.7 39.3 46.7 3.7 5.2 8.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 1.2 2.5 1.9 -0.5 45.1 46.8 0.4 3.1 4.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 3.3 5.3 5.2 -0.6 44.6 47.6 4.0 5.6 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 2.8 4.7 5.1 -0.8 38.3 45.9 4.4 5.8 8.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 2.8 5.0 5.7 -0.7 40.8 47.1 4.3 5.6 8.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 3.9 5.5 4.9 -0.5 46.4 48.1 3.8 6.9 10.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 3.1 4.5 3.7 -0.6 44.2 47.3 3.8 5.3 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 4.3 6.3 3.2 -0.4 47.8 47.5 5.0 6.5 8.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 3.8 5.3 4.5 -0.6 42.4 47.0 3.6 5.7 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 3.3 5.8 3.1 -0.5 45.8 47.8 4.7 6.4 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 0.4 2.3 3.3 -0.3 47.5 48.5 0.1 2.4 5.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 3.1 4.1 5.0 -0.7 38.6 46.7 3.8 5.3 8.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------