***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.02.2021.-07.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 1.7 4.4 5.4 0.6 52.5 54.2 1.4 3.9 9.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 6.4 5.5 5.5 0.6 52.8 54.2 1.9 4.9 7.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 7.3 6.6 6.0 0.8 54.4 54.9 3.0 5.7 9.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 0.6 -0.2 2.3 0.3 51.9 52.2 -2.5 -0.4 2.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 6.3 5.1 3.9 0.3 50.8 52.1 2.6 5.1 8.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 5.6 4.1 2.3 -0.2 46.4 48.9 1.8 4.6 6.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 5.9 4.4 5.2 0.5 51.2 53.1 1.7 4.4 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 -0.6 -1.4 2.9 -0.1 48.2 49.9 -3.0 -1.3 0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 7.5 6.6 5.0 0.4 52.8 53.0 3.2 6.1 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 7.7 6.8 3.8 0.2 50.8 51.5 3.7 6.4 8.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 6.8 5.6 4.2 0.2 51.1 52.0 2.8 5.4 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 7.1 5.4 3.6 0.0 49.0 50.5 3.7 5.9 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 6.5 4.9 3.5 -0.1 48.1 49.8 3.0 5.3 8.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 8.4 9.1 5.7 1.0 57.3 56.0 4.4 6.8 10.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 6.7 6.7 4.0 0.6 56.6 53.8 4.2 6.0 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 6.8 5.1 3.4 0.0 48.0 50.2 3.5 5.6 9.0 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 2.2 5.3 5.2 0.4 51.2 52.8 2.4 5.0 7.9 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 3.2 5.7 3.7 0.4 53.3 52.7 3.6 5.2 7.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 6.6 5.9 5.8 0.8 54.3 55.0 2.5 5.0 8.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 2.9 1.8 1.6 -0.1 48.6 49.9 0.4 1.9 4.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 3.4 6.2 5.7 0.6 52.9 54.0 3.1 5.9 8.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 7.1 6.4 5.6 0.6 52.9 54.4 2.8 5.8 9.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 6.7 7.0 6.0 0.9 55.7 55.9 3.0 5.3 8.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 3.9 8.4 5.5 0.8 56.1 54.8 3.9 6.6 9.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 2.2 4.3 4.1 0.4 51.5 52.7 2.0 4.3 7.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 5.3 4.2 2.5 -0.4 46.3 47.8 3.3 4.4 7.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 2.4 4.7 4.8 0.4 51.1 52.7 2.2 4.6 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 7.7 7.5 3.1 0.4 52.9 52.4 5.5 7.0 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 0.7 3.1 3.1 0.3 52.5 52.3 0.7 2.4 5.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 6.2 5.5 5.5 0.7 53.1 54.4 1.8 4.8 8.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------