***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.01.2021.-31.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 90 10 100 2.2 1.9 3.5 0.0 51.4 50.4 1.0 1.7 5.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 95 5 100 2.7 2.9 3.8 0.2 53.5 52.7 0.9 2.4 5.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 92 8 100 4.7 4.6 4.0 0.3 54.9 54.4 1.5 4.5 5.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 96 4 100 -0.9 -1.0 0.5 0.2 52.7 52.9 -2.5 -1.1 0.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 89 11 100 4.8 4.8 2.0 -0.2 51.0 49.6 2.3 4.5 6.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 4.6 2.5 0.0 -1.1 39.4 39.8 2.0 4.0 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 93 7 100 2.3 2.0 3.4 -0.2 50.9 49.5 0.2 2.0 4.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 -1.6 -2.5 0.5 -1.1 42.6 42.2 -3.2 -2.1 -0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 89 11 100 5.5 5.5 3.3 0.0 53.0 51.7 2.0 5.2 6.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 87 13 100 4.9 4.2 1.5 -0.7 48.2 46.8 1.7 4.4 5.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 88 12 100 4.8 4.7 2.5 -0.3 50.8 49.7 2.1 4.4 6.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 86 14 100 4.9 4.2 1.4 -0.7 45.8 45.6 1.7 4.4 6.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 5.1 3.3 1.9 -0.8 44.2 43.9 1.9 4.6 6.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 90 10 100 5.0 5.5 4.0 0.5 59.6 57.7 1.7 4.6 6.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 93 7 100 4.0 4.4 3.3 1.2 57.6 58.8 2.3 3.8 5.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 5.3 3.4 1.4 -0.6 44.3 44.9 2.7 4.8 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 90 10 100 2.3 2.2 3.4 -0.1 53.2 51.5 0.5 1.9 5.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 3.6 2.8 1.2 -0.6 47.5 47.6 1.9 3.2 4.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 95 5 100 2.6 3.3 4.1 0.5 55.5 55.0 0.4 2.3 5.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 2.2 0.4 -1.1 -1.5 36.1 37.2 0.2 1.6 2.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 90 10 100 4.9 5.1 3.9 0.1 53.5 52.6 2.8 4.6 5.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 90 10 100 3.3 4.5 4.0 0.4 57.6 56.1 1.3 2.8 5.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 93 7 100 3.1 4.0 4.3 0.7 57.4 57.2 0.7 2.7 5.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 89 11 100 5.2 5.9 3.5 0.1 56.3 54.7 2.2 4.9 6.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 91 9 100 3.0 2.6 2.4 -0.2 50.7 49.2 1.7 2.6 5.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 2.6 2.9 0.4 -1.1 36.2 38.1 2.8 4.5 5.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 89 11 100 3.0 2.2 2.8 -0.4 47.6 46.7 1.4 2.6 6.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 91 9 100 4.7 4.6 1.7 0.5 53.7 54.4 3.4 4.4 5.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 1.4 0.7 0.5 -0.8 44.9 45.3 -0.5 1.0 2.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 94 6 100 2.2 2.2 3.7 0.1 52.5 52.0 0.7 1.9 5.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------