***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.01.2021.-21.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 -1.3 -1.5 -1.5 0.7 53.8 56.3 -3.3 -1.8 -1.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 -2.6 -2.9 -1.5 0.7 53.1 56.6 -4.3 -3.3 -1.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 -0.5 0.1 -1.4 0.8 56.6 58.3 -2.0 -1.0 0.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 -6.1 -6.5 -4.3 0.5 49.8 55.9 -7.7 -6.5 -5.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 -2.9 -3.5 -3.5 0.5 49.8 56.2 -3.9 -3.4 -2.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 -3.7 -3.6 -5.7 0.7 55.8 57.1 -5.2 -4.2 -2.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 -2.0 -2.3 -1.6 0.6 51.1 55.3 -3.9 -2.5 -1.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 -7.8 -8.2 -5.5 0.5 52.5 55.0 -9.8 -8.3 -8.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 -1.9 -2.2 -3.1 0.7 52.2 57.9 -3.2 -2.4 -1.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 -2.0 -2.3 -4.7 0.6 53.5 56.6 -3.6 -2.4 -1.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 -2.4 -2.7 -4.0 0.7 52.9 57.3 -4.0 -2.9 -2.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 -3.5 -3.8 -4.7 0.5 52.1 55.2 -4.8 -4.0 -2.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 -2.6 -2.9 -4.7 0.8 54.7 57.9 -4.0 -3.1 -2.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 -1.5 -1.4 -3.2 0.9 57.9 59.7 -3.2 -2.0 -1.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 -1.1 -1.8 -2.5 1.0 59.4 61.4 -3.3 -2.1 -1.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 -2.1 -2.5 -4.6 0.6 50.7 56.2 -3.1 -2.5 -1.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 -2.3 -2.6 -1.6 0.5 51.0 55.0 -4.2 -2.9 -1.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 -4.1 -4.0 -5.1 0.8 57.4 58.4 -5.8 -4.6 -3.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 -2.4 -1.8 -1.5 0.8 55.9 58.0 -4.3 -2.9 -1.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 -7.4 -7.2 -6.4 0.6 57.7 57.3 -9.8 -8.0 -6.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 -2.1 -2.2 -2.0 0.7 53.1 57.7 -3.5 -2.5 -1.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 -2.6 -2.8 -1.6 0.7 54.2 57.3 -4.3 -3.3 -1.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 -2.4 -2.4 -1.7 0.9 58.8 59.7 -4.3 -2.9 -1.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 -2.2 -2.3 -3.4 0.9 57.2 59.3 -4.1 -2.6 -1.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 -2.7 -3.3 -2.7 0.5 48.6 54.4 -3.6 -3.3 -1.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 -2.5 -2.9 -5.2 0.3 50.1 53.6 -3.9 -2.9 -2.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 -2.1 -2.7 -2.0 0.5 49.5 54.5 -3.8 -2.6 -1.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 -3.0 -3.4 -3.8 0.8 53.9 58.1 -4.5 -3.5 -2.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 -5.3 -5.4 -5.8 0.6 56.3 57.4 -6.4 -5.6 -4.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 -2.1 -2.2 -1.5 0.7 53.6 57.0 -3.6 -2.7 -1.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------