***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.02.2021.-14.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 -3.3 -2.3 -2.5 -0.5 40.2 48.3 -2.8 -1.2 1.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 -3.7 -3.7 -2.6 -0.6 36.1 46.6 -3.9 -1.6 -0.2 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 -2.1 -1.3 -2.4 -0.5 40.0 48.7 -1.9 -0.3 2.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 -8.9 -8.1 -5.0 -0.5 40.1 48.0 -8.3 -7.8 -2.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 -3.9 -3.4 -4.6 -0.5 38.6 48.1 -3.5 -2.8 -0.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 -5.3 -3.4 -6.5 -0.2 44.2 48.5 -5.1 -3.2 -1.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 -3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -0.6 37.1 46.9 -3.2 -2.0 0.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 -9.8 -8.2 -6.1 -0.2 44.8 48.4 -9.5 -7.6 -5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 -3.9 -3.3 -4.1 -0.4 38.8 48.5 -3.5 -1.9 0.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 -4.1 -2.3 -5.5 -0.3 42.3 48.6 -2.9 -1.8 -0.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 -4.3 -2.8 -5.1 -0.3 41.1 48.7 -3.2 -2.3 -1.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 -5.3 -3.8 -5.6 -0.3 44.0 48.9 -4.3 -3.4 -2.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 -4.3 -3.2 -5.9 -0.2 44.9 49.4 -4.1 -2.7 -1.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 -3.1 -1.9 -4.3 -0.3 39.8 48.8 -2.3 -0.9 -0.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 -3.4 -2.3 -3.7 -0.2 41.6 49.7 -3.0 -1.2 -0.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 -3.4 -2.0 -5.7 -0.4 42.2 48.3 -3.0 -1.3 -0.8 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 -3.5 -3.2 -2.5 -0.8 36.1 45.7 -3.4 -1.4 -0.3 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 -5.9 -3.7 -6.0 -0.2 42.6 49.2 -4.7 -3.6 -2.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 -3.9 -3.0 -2.6 -0.6 36.0 47.2 -3.3 -2.1 0.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 -9.2 -7.3 -6.9 0.1 47.2 50.1 -8.7 -7.2 -5.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 -3.5 -3.2 -3.1 -0.5 40.0 48.5 -3.4 -2.0 -0.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 -3.7 -3.1 -2.7 -0.7 33.2 46.0 -3.1 -2.2 -0.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 -4.1 -3.1 -2.7 -0.5 38.1 48.4 -3.3 -2.3 -1.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 -3.9 -2.9 -4.5 -0.3 40.6 49.1 -3.5 -2.1 -0.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 -3.9 -2.4 -3.6 -0.4 42.1 48.7 -3.0 -2.3 -0.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 -4.3 -3.0 -6.0 -0.2 43.8 49.1 -3.5 -2.6 -1.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 -3.6 -2.3 -2.8 -0.4 41.5 48.4 -3.7 -1.4 -0.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 -4.9 -3.5 -4.8 -0.4 40.8 48.1 -4.7 -2.3 -1.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 -6.8 -5.5 -6.3 -0.1 44.6 49.4 -6.5 -4.6 -2.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 -3.8 -2.7 -2.5 -0.5 38.2 47.7 -3.0 -1.6 0.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------