***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.01.2021.-31.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 87 13 100 -2.6 -1.2 -1.2 1.8 63.6 64.4 -5.5 -3.1 -1.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 -1.1 -1.4 -1.3 1.9 66.6 66.8 -6.1 -3.2 -1.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 47 53 100 0.0 0.2 -1.1 1.9 64.8 65.7 -3.4 -1.6 0.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 92 8 100 -6.5 -6.2 -3.8 1.9 58.9 61.1 -8.8 -6.7 -5.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 89 11 100 -2.9 -0.8 -2.6 1.8 63.9 64.2 -4.1 -3.2 -0.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 90 10 100 -4.4 -2.2 -5.0 1.8 63.9 64.6 -6.3 -4.8 -2.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 47 53 100 -1.0 -1.6 -1.4 1.6 65.0 65.0 -5.1 -3.2 -1.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 90 10 100 -8.0 -8.0 -5.6 0.8 55.8 57.1 -10.8 -8.2 -7.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 88 12 100 -1.9 -0.3 -2.2 2.1 64.9 66.4 -4.2 -2.3 -0.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 90 10 100 -2.2 -1.5 -4.4 1.4 59.4 61.4 -4.5 -2.4 -1.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 89 11 100 -2.6 -0.9 -2.9 2.0 63.6 64.6 -4.3 -2.9 -0.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 90 10 100 -3.0 -2.6 -4.2 1.3 59.2 59.7 -5.3 -3.3 -1.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 49 51 100 -1.7 -0.9 -3.4 2.1 67.3 66.7 -4.4 -3.2 -0.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 87 13 100 -1.3 -1.1 -2.9 1.9 63.1 64.1 -4.1 -1.6 -1.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 -0.8 -0.2 -1.2 3.0 71.2 71.5 -3.9 -2.7 -0.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 90 10 100 -2.3 -1.3 -3.6 1.8 62.8 63.0 -4.2 -2.6 -0.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 44 56 100 -1.2 -1.6 -1.6 1.6 66.5 65.3 -5.0 -3.2 -1.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 88 12 100 -3.7 -3.3 -4.8 1.5 61.1 62.8 -5.5 -3.9 -2.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 -1.2 -0.7 -1.3 2.1 67.0 67.7 -5.2 -3.0 -0.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 88 12 100 -7.7 -7.6 -6.9 0.5 56.1 56.0 -9.7 -8.1 -6.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 47 53 100 -1.1 -0.7 -1.3 2.0 64.3 65.8 -4.4 -2.5 -0.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 -1.3 -0.9 -1.2 1.9 69.4 67.8 -5.3 -3.6 -1.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 45 55 100 -1.1 -1.2 -1.5 2.1 66.8 67.5 -4.7 -2.3 -1.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 87 13 100 -2.1 -1.5 -2.6 2.0 63.8 65.4 -4.8 -2.3 -1.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 90 10 100 -2.5 -1.9 -2.0 1.5 58.2 60.7 -4.4 -2.7 -0.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 91 9 100 -3.3 -2.9 -4.6 1.0 56.4 56.9 -4.9 -3.6 -2.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 88 12 100 -2.7 -1.8 -1.6 1.5 60.2 61.6 -5.3 -3.2 -1.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 49 51 100 -2.3 -1.2 -2.9 2.4 65.4 65.8 -5.3 -4.2 -1.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 88 12 100 -5.5 -4.7 -6.2 1.0 58.2 58.9 -8.6 -5.7 -4.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 44 56 100 -1.0 -1.0 -1.2 1.8 66.2 66.0 -5.3 -3.0 -1.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------