***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.01.2016.-21.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 30.7 25.7 36.5 94.8 49.2 48.8 19.8 25.7 36.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 30.5 31.3 36.9 106.2 60.3 55.6 18.4 25.7 33.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 39.2 33.0 36.4 92.1 46.2 46.4 28.0 34.1 45.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 48.2 39.5 39.3 84.6 39.5 41.7 34.6 43.4 50.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 31.0 37.3 41.6 87.7 38.0 42.4 33.9 44.5 57.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 37.7 29.0 42.1 86.9 40.4 42.7 25.8 33.0 41.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 26.6 28.8 36.8 106.8 61.5 55.6 19.5 21.3 31.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 71.9 56.8 45.6 91.8 43.6 45.6 53.4 67.3 80.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 24.1 29.6 42.4 89.6 43.6 43.5 22.3 32.3 38.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 46.8 36.1 45.8 90.8 43.0 44.5 33.2 39.3 49.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 24.2 28.3 40.1 90.5 41.9 45.1 25.6 31.1 42.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 23.3 32.9 39.5 91.2 43.5 45.3 25.8 34.9 45.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 45.1 31.4 41.4 90.5 41.1 44.3 27.9 38.2 58.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 53.4 48.6 45.2 92.7 47.6 47.0 37.0 50.1 57.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 16.8 16.6 31.7 69.9 35.7 35.9 15.5 24.6 29.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 23.3 28.5 39.4 89.3 41.1 44.1 24.1 32.2 41.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 29.6 35.1 36.9 111.0 64.6 57.4 22.2 26.3 35.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 43.9 36.1 49.8 90.6 43.8 44.3 28.0 38.5 52.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 34.0 33.6 36.8 102.4 56.6 53.3 22.4 30.8 39.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 48.6 35.1 58.8 91.7 42.6 45.9 29.0 42.5 51.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 38.4 33.5 38.6 89.1 43.6 43.8 23.1 35.6 41.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 33.5 35.4 37.8 108.4 63.0 56.3 23.0 29.9 38.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 33.7 30.6 37.6 95.7 48.0 48.8 23.4 31.1 35.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 51.6 37.3 43.6 89.9 44.6 44.1 35.7 47.1 58.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 39.8 33.2 42.7 90.7 43.9 44.8 28.9 35.4 45.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 23.5 29.1 38.6 83.6 37.6 39.7 25.0 34.7 43.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 35.0 26.2 41.6 96.6 48.8 49.2 21.9 27.8 42.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 17.8 22.0 35.6 78.7 37.8 39.2 20.1 25.2 33.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 74.6 64.7 53.5 91.8 46.1 45.6 50.5 69.2 79.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 28.6 29.7 36.5 102.0 56.9 53.3 18.5 23.5 40.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------