***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.02.2016.-21.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 10.2 11.9 10.4 113.9 64.0 55.1 3.9 9.4 11.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 5.5 12.8 10.5 121.1 70.9 58.2 1.3 2.9 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 7.9 11.6 10.2 111.9 64.0 54.8 2.7 5.4 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 10.7 11.4 11.9 113.9 61.7 58.1 7.1 10.2 12.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 10.5 12.5 12.3 117.5 64.5 57.8 6.1 8.9 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 7.2 8.2 13.3 117.5 64.9 57.8 4.4 5.8 8.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 10.3 7.2 10.4 119.4 69.2 57.7 1.3 4.2 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 19.4 22.2 13.8 122.9 65.8 57.7 11.0 17.8 22.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 7.4 7.6 12.4 117.3 64.9 57.4 4.0 5.4 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 10.8 12.3 13.3 118.1 64.6 57.6 5.6 9.4 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 8.9 9.5 11.7 120.5 65.9 57.4 5.2 6.8 9.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 10.5 14.5 12.0 124.0 65.9 57.3 5.3 8.4 14.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 10.7 11.6 12.6 120.3 65.3 58.2 6.5 9.6 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 10.0 12.0 13.3 120.1 67.0 58.7 5.0 7.6 11.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 6.8 9.6 10.8 110.6 63.7 57.6 1.1 3.9 10.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 9.1 11.0 11.9 121.2 66.5 58.2 4.0 7.2 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 5.3 8.6 10.6 122.2 70.3 58.3 1.2 3.6 7.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 9.8 13.4 14.5 117.2 68.0 58.9 3.8 7.2 12.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 5.2 8.9 10.5 120.7 69.4 57.6 1.5 3.0 8.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 11.7 17.9 18.1 121.2 70.7 59.4 5.1 9.7 16.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 7.5 8.8 11.1 113.9 61.5 56.0 2.2 5.2 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 6.4 7.9 10.7 124.0 70.6 58.7 2.0 4.8 6.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 5.6 10.1 10.8 119.4 66.3 56.9 2.3 4.1 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 9.2 9.9 12.6 114.3 65.6 57.1 5.0 7.9 10.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 7.9 8.5 12.3 114.3 60.1 57.5 3.2 6.8 9.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 10.1 10.6 12.4 118.7 64.7 58.4 4.9 9.4 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 7.5 9.2 11.8 115.0 61.9 56.5 3.7 5.9 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 6.7 8.3 11.4 114.4 64.1 57.8 1.5 4.8 9.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 18.3 26.9 15.9 119.8 70.7 60.0 11.7 15.6 22.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 6.6 9.3 10.3 117.9 69.0 56.9 1.5 4.6 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------