***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.02.2016.-14.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 2.4 7.4 10.6 109.7 65.8 55.1 1.6 5.2 7.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 6.3 13.7 10.5 119.6 70.8 56.2 1.1 2.9 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 10.2 8.4 10.7 107.0 64.7 54.6 2.0 6.0 8.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 12.4 16.6 12.5 114.9 64.9 54.3 2.6 8.6 17.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 14.2 16.6 12.9 114.4 66.6 54.1 2.8 11.2 16.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 8.7 11.3 12.9 111.8 61.4 50.3 5.0 6.7 11.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 6.4 8.5 10.5 122.6 71.0 56.9 1.9 4.5 8.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 19.8 20.9 14.5 116.8 65.4 54.0 8.5 16.8 21.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 11.0 13.0 12.9 109.8 64.0 53.4 3.3 9.3 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 11.3 13.7 14.3 112.0 62.6 53.3 6.1 9.3 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 10.6 10.8 12.3 115.0 65.3 53.3 4.8 8.6 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 9.9 13.0 12.4 117.7 65.4 53.2 2.7 7.0 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 11.7 11.8 12.6 115.1 62.4 52.7 3.8 9.5 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 7.6 19.5 14.1 110.7 69.7 55.8 8.5 14.8 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 7.3 9.0 10.5 106.8 62.2 51.8 1.7 3.9 11.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 11.0 10.8 12.0 115.8 64.7 53.2 1.4 9.2 11.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 9.5 12.1 10.7 129.9 71.4 57.0 1.8 8.4 11.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 10.4 12.9 15.8 110.6 63.9 54.6 3.9 7.2 13.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 8.7 12.0 10.5 114.7 68.2 55.9 2.5 5.6 11.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 5.2 13.7 19.6 120.1 68.5 57.4 3.3 10.1 12.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 3.6 13.0 11.6 107.7 64.8 53.6 2.9 6.9 13.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 8.0 12.0 11.2 126.4 70.0 57.0 3.2 6.4 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 8.9 16.7 11.0 110.3 66.3 55.7 1.4 5.9 16.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 11.9 15.2 13.5 107.3 64.6 54.5 4.6 9.4 15.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 11.9 13.5 12.9 112.5 65.4 55.6 2.1 5.7 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 6.5 6.8 12.3 116.6 65.3 52.9 2.4 4.6 6.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 2.9 10.5 12.1 112.3 66.2 56.3 2.4 5.9 10.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 9.3 13.7 11.3 110.6 62.8 52.4 1.8 6.2 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 9.3 23.4 17.2 113.9 67.0 56.2 8.7 15.1 22.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 6.2 11.9 10.4 114.7 71.2 56.0 2.4 4.1 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------