***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.02.2016.-07.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 0.6 3.6 9.0 99.6 60.6 51.2 0.4 1.5 4.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 0.5 4.0 10.1 126.6 69.2 57.0 0.5 1.1 4.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 3.7 3.4 9.2 97.8 57.5 49.6 0.5 2.0 5.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 3.1 6.9 8.1 71.2 53.3 42.1 3.2 6.6 8.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 2.7 5.6 8.8 76.8 50.6 41.5 2.1 5.4 8.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 67 33 0 100 2.1 5.6 9.1 74.5 48.4 39.4 1.6 5.7 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 0.9 5.0 9.9 126.2 70.2 56.5 0.7 1.9 3.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 6.1 9.8 9.6 81.7 52.1 42.4 5.9 9.2 13.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 1.5 3.6 9.5 81.4 48.1 43.5 1.2 3.7 5.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 1.8 4.5 10.0 82.3 49.8 43.0 1.8 4.5 6.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 1.7 3.9 8.5 80.1 51.0 42.1 1.6 3.6 6.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 1.3 3.2 8.3 80.0 50.6 41.8 2.2 3.2 5.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 1.9 4.3 8.9 81.6 48.3 41.0 2.6 5.0 8.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 1.4 3.5 10.8 93.0 53.1 47.6 1.1 3.0 7.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 0.9 0.8 6.0 51.1 44.8 36.9 0.3 2.0 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 2.1 5.1 8.3 78.1 48.8 40.9 2.0 5.1 6.3 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 0.9 4.6 10.1 135.5 73.8 58.3 0.7 1.8 3.3 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 1.5 3.4 11.4 85.6 48.5 44.3 1.8 3.4 5.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 2.5 5.0 9.9 119.2 67.4 55.3 0.4 1.2 4.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 2.1 4.0 12.9 86.5 51.7 45.1 2.3 3.6 4.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 1.4 3.4 8.8 83.6 51.4 44.9 0.9 3.3 5.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 3.1 6.6 10.2 129.9 73.5 58.4 0.6 1.7 3.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 3.1 2.9 9.6 104.0 63.0 51.4 0.2 1.5 3.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 5.2 3.6 10.5 89.0 51.4 46.3 2.0 3.2 7.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 1.4 4.2 9.9 89.1 53.8 46.6 1.1 3.5 5.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 1.8 4.2 7.9 70.8 47.0 38.5 1.8 4.6 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 1.4 5.6 10.3 102.9 59.1 51.7 0.4 3.3 6.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 1.0 2.0 6.9 60.9 47.1 38.5 0.7 2.5 5.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 4.5 10.0 12.3 87.5 51.5 45.2 3.8 9.1 12.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 0.9 3.7 9.8 118.0 65.8 55.1 0.8 1.9 3.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------